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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Remo crestRemo

Serie A | Thu 05 Nov, 22:30

Palmeiras v Remo Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 07:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras face Remo in a Serie A clash where Palmeiras sit comfortably near the top of the table while Remo struggle near the relegation zone. Palmeiras have shown defensive solidity recently, conceding just 0.2 goals per game, while Remo's attack has been limited, scoring 0.8 goals per game. Both teams have a low rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting a tactical battle with cautious attacking intent. Palmeiras' strong defensive form and Remo's limited offensive threat set the stage for a low-scoring encounter with tight control in midfield and defense.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Palmeiras concede only 0.2 goals per game, showing strong defensive form.
  • Remo average just 0.8 goals scored per game, indicating limited attacking threat.
  • Both teams have a 20% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting low-scoring tendencies.
  • Palmeiras average 6.8 shots on target per game, but Remo's defense restricts chances effectively.
  • Remo's higher BTTS rate (60%) is offset by Palmeiras' defensive discipline, favoring fewer goals overall.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 66% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 41.7%. Palmeiras' exceptional defensive record combined with Remo's modest scoring output supports a low-scoring game. Both teams have only a 20% frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a tight, controlled match. The model is high at 88%, reflecting consistent defensive and offensive trends that align with a cautious game plan and limited goal opportunities.

Palmeiras Defensive Strength0.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Remo Offensive Output0.8 goals scored per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Frequency20% for both teams
Strong positive
Model Confidence88%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given Palmeiras' defensive resilience and Remo's limited scoring threat. Palmeiras' ability to control games and Remo's struggle to create clear chances suggest a match unlikely to produce many goals. The data supports a cautious game with few scoring opportunities, making the low goals bet tactically and statistically sound.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and low scoring potential

“Palmeiras' defensive discipline combined with Remo's modest attack creates a scenario where goals will be hard to come by, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical and data-backed selection.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Palmeiras concede only 0.2 goals per game, showing strong defensive form.

Remo average just 0.8 goals scored per game, indicating limited attacking threat.

Palmeiras average 6.8 shots on target per game, but Remo's defense restricts chances effectively.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last meeting between these teams, the average goals were 2, aligning with a low-scoring trend.
  • Both teams have only a 20% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals in recent games, indicating a pattern of controlled tempo and defensive caution that supports the Under 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palmeiras1.8
Avg goals scored
Remo0.8
Palmeiras0.2
Avg goals conceded
Remo0.8
Palmeiras20%
BTTS rate
Remo60%
Palmeiras20%
Over 2.5 goals
Remo20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Both teams have a low frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals at 20%, and Palmeiras concedes very few goals, supporting a low-scoring match. Remo's higher BTTS rate is mitigated by Palmeiras' defensive discipline, suggesting goals will be limited and BTTS unlikely, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals angle.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionRemo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Remo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
Palmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
The 56.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Palmeiras and 20% for Remo, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palmeiras

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
28 Oct 2026A Santos0-0
24 Oct 2026H RB Bragantino2-0
17 Oct 2026A Atletico Paranaense2-0
11 Oct 2026H Corinthians4-1
09 Oct 2026H Bahia1-0

Remo

WLDDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
29 Oct 2026H Botafogo2-1
24 Oct 2026A Cruzeiro0-1
18 Oct 2026H RB Bragantino1-1
10 Oct 2026A Vasco DA Gama0-0
07 Oct 2026H Gremio1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
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Remo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Remo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
Palmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Palmeiras have earned 13 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.2 goals per game, while Remo have 6 points and concede 0.8 goals per game. Both teams have a 20% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, reflecting recent trends favoring low-scoring outcomes and reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Palmeiras Over 2.5
20%Remo Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last meeting between these teams, the average goals were 2, aligning with a low-scoring trend. Both teams have only a 20% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals in recent games, indicating a pattern of controlled tempo and defensive caution that supports the Under 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.

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