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Lincoln Red Imps FC crestLincoln Red Imps FC
v
HNK Hajduk Split crestHNK Hajduk Split

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 05 Nov, 17:45

Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 09:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa Conference League clash features Lincoln Red Imps FC hosting HNK Hajduk Split, with Hajduk holding a clear advantage in recent form and league standing. Hajduk has demonstrated strong attacking output, averaging 2.4 goals per game and maintaining an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Lincoln Red Imps FC, despite a lower league rank, have shown resilience with a 75% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting an open game likely to produce multiple goals. Both teams' offensive tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for a high-scoring encounter with significant attacking intent from Hajduk.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Hajduk Split averages 2.4 goals per game with 80% over 2.5 goals rate.
  • Lincoln Red Imps FC have a 75% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • Hajduk Split averages 7.4 shots and 5 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.
  • Lincoln Red Imps FC average 3 shots and 4 shots on target per game, showing attacking efforts despite lower volume.
  • No previous head-to-head matches, adding unpredictability to the fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at 78% chance, reflecting both teams' attacking profiles and recent scoring trends. Hajduk Split's strong offensive metrics, including high shot volume and goal averages, combined with Lincoln Red Imps FC's tendency for open matches, support expectations of multiple goals. The 19.2% positive at 1.7 indicates a favorable price for this goal market, with no warnings on price sensitivity. The balanced defensive records and attacking intent from both sides further reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Model Chance73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge73.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Hajduk Split Offensive Output2.4 goals/game, 7.4 shots/game
Strong positive
Lincoln Red Imps FC Over 2.5 Rate75%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as Hajduk Split's potent offense meets Lincoln Red Imps FC's willingness to engage offensively. Hajduk's consistent goal-scoring form and Lincoln's tendency for high-scoring games suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a logical choice, supported by strong shot metrics and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Hajduk Split's attacking prowess combined with Lincoln Red Imps FC's openness creates a fertile ground for goals. This fixture's statistical profile strongly favors a high-scoring outcome, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Hajduk Split averages 2.4 goals per game with 80% over 2.5 goals rate.

Lincoln Red Imps FC have a 75% over 2.5 goals rate this season.

Hajduk Split averages 7.4 shots and 5 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

Lincoln Red Imps FC average 3 shots and 4 shots on target per game, showing attacking efforts despite lower volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last matches, both teams have maintained high over 2.5 goals rates—75% for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 80% for Hajduk Split—indicating a trend toward open, attacking games.
  • This trend suggests a fast tempo and multiple goal opportunities are likely in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lincoln Red Imps FC1.25
Avg goals scored
HNK Hajduk Split2.4
Lincoln Red Imps FC2
Avg goals conceded
HNK Hajduk Split1
Lincoln Red Imps FC50%
BTTS rate
HNK Hajduk Split60%
Lincoln Red Imps FC75%
Over 2.5 goals
HNK Hajduk Split80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have high over 2.5 goals rates—75% for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 80% for Hajduk Split—reflecting frequent open games with multiple goals. Hajduk's 2.4 goals per game and Lincoln's 1.25 goals per game show offensive capability, while BTTS rates of 50% and 60% respectively indicate both sides often contribute to the scoreline.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Europa Conference League analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Lincoln Red Imps FC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Lincoln Red Imps FC to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
8
Check odds @ 8
HNK Hajduk Split to WinBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
The 73.8% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 80% for HNK Hajduk Split, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lincoln Red Imps FC

LLWL
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
22 Oct 2026H Twente1-4
15 Oct 2026A Brann1-2
27 Aug 2026A Larne3-0
20 Aug 2026H Larne0-2

HNK Hajduk Split

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 0L
22 Oct 2026A FC Thun1-0
15 Oct 2026H Ajax2-1
27 Aug 2026A Raków Częstochowa3-2
20 Aug 2026H Raków Częstochowa2-2
13 Aug 2026H FK Zalgiris Vilnius4-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +14.7 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Lincoln Red Imps FC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Lincoln Red Imps FC to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
8
Check odds @ 8
HNK Hajduk Split to WinBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
HNK Hajduk Split Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Recent form data shows Hajduk Split accumulating 13 points with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, reflecting consistent high-scoring performances. Lincoln Red Imps FC have 3 points with a 75% over 2.5 rate, indicating openness in their matches. This form supports expectations of a game featuring multiple goals from both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Lincoln Red Imps FC Over 2.5
80%HNK Hajduk Split Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last matches, both teams have maintained high over 2.5 goals rates—75% for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 80% for Hajduk Split—indicating a trend toward open, attacking games. This trend suggests a fast tempo and multiple goal opportunities are likely in this fixture.

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