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AZ Alkmaar crestAZ Alkmaar
v
Juventus crestJuventus

UEFA Europa League | Thu 05 Nov, 20:00

AZ Alkmaar v Juventus Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 09:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League clash features AZ Alkmaar hosting Juventus in a fixture poised for attacking intensity. Both teams have shown offensive promise recently, with Juventus boasting a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate in their last matches and AZ Alkmaar contributing a solid 67%. Juventus sits slightly higher in the group standings but both sides have similar points, setting the stage for a competitive encounter where goal-scoring opportunities are expected to be abundant. Tactical openness and the need for points suggest a lively game with multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Juventus has a 100% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals recently.
  • AZ Alkmaar records 67% over 2.5 goals in their recent games.
  • Both teams average over 14 shots per match, indicating offensive activity.
  • Juventus averages nearly 6 shots on target per game, showing finishing threat.
  • No previous head-to-head data, making form and stats crucial for analysis.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 78% chance, driven by Juventus' consistent high-scoring matches and AZ Alkmaar's solid attacking output. Juventus' perfect recent over 2.5 record and both teams' high shot volumes and goal averages support an open game with multiple scoring chances. The pricing at 1.8 reflects good value given the model's and the attacking profiles of both sides. The absence of head-to-head data places more emphasis on recent form and attacking metrics, which clearly favor a goal-rich encounter.

Juventus Over 2.5 Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5 Rate67% recent matches
Positive
Average Shots per MatchAZ 14.33, Juventus 15.67
Positive
Model Chance vs Implied Chance70.6% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Head-to-Head DataNo previous meetings
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Juventus and AZ Alkmaar both demonstrate strong offensive tendencies. Juventus' flawless recent record of high-scoring games combined with AZ Alkmaar's willingness to push forward suggests multiple goals. The data supports a lively match where defensive lapses and attacking quality will likely produce over 2.5 goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking dynamics and goal potential

“Juventus' attacking firepower paired with AZ Alkmaar's offensive ambition sets the stage for a high-scoring Europa League encounter. Both teams' shot volumes and goal rates underline the likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Juventus has a 100% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals recently.

AZ Alkmaar records 67% over 2.5 goals in their recent games.

Both teams average over 14 shots per match, indicating offensive activity.

Juventus averages nearly 6 shots on target per game, showing finishing threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Examining recent matches over the last five fixtures, Juventus maintains a perfect record of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while AZ Alkmaar also frequently participates in high-scoring matches.
  • This trend suggests a fast tempo and open play style that typically leads to multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AZ Alkmaar2
Avg goals scored
Juventus3
AZ Alkmaar0.67
Avg goals conceded
Juventus1
AZ Alkmaar33%
BTTS rate
Juventus67%
AZ Alkmaar67%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventus100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goals, with Juventus achieving over 2.5 goals in all recent games and AZ Alkmaar in two-thirds. BTTS rates are moderate, with Juventus scoring in most matches and AZ Alkmaar less consistently, suggesting goals from both sides but with a slight lean towards Juventus' offensive control.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Juventus to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Juventus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
The 70.6% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 67% for AZ Alkmaar and 100% for Juventus, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AZ Alkmaar

WWL
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
22 Oct 2026A Ararat-Armenia4-0
15 Oct 2026H Hapoel Beer Sheva2-1
16 Sep 2026A Sunderland0-1

Juventus

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
22 Oct 2026H Rennes2-2
15 Oct 2026A Celta Vigo2-1
17 Sep 2026H NEC Nijmegen5-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 80% · edge -2 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Juventus to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Juventus Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
AZ Alkmaar to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Recent form data highlights Juventus' consistent high-scoring matches, maintaining a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, while AZ Alkmaar also shows a strong attacking output with 67% of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored multiple goals recently, reinforcing expectations for an open, goal-filled encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5
100%Juventus Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Examining recent matches over the last five fixtures, Juventus maintains a perfect record of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while AZ Alkmaar also frequently participates in high-scoring matches. This trend suggests a fast tempo and open play style that typically leads to multiple goals in this fixture.

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