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Dunkerque crestDunkerque
v
Guingamp crestGuingamp

Ligue 2 | Fri 06 Nov, 19:00

Dunkerque v Guingamp Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dunkerque and Guingamp meet in a Ligue 2 clash where both teams have shown moderate scoring ability but also defensive solidity. Dunkerque averages less than one goal per game and concedes slightly more than one, while Guingamp scores a bit more but also maintains a relatively tight defense. Recent form suggests cautious play, with Dunkerque securing 4 points and Guingamp 6 in their last few matches. The tactical setup and stakes hint at a controlled encounter with limited goal-scoring opportunities, making a low-scoring outcome plausible.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Dunkerque scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 1.4 on average
  • Guingamp averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of both teams scoring in recent games
  • Dunkerque’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is only 20%, indicating low-scoring tendencies
  • Guingamp’s average shots on target (4) exceed Dunkerque’s (2.6), but finishing is moderate

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as a value bet with a 61.7% chance, significantly higher than the 47.6% implied by the . Both teams have shown restrained attacking output and moderate defensive records, with Dunkerque particularly low on scoring and Over 2.5 occurrences. The head-to-head average of 1.9 goals per game further supports a low-scoring match. This statistical and tactical profile aligns well with the Under 2.5 Goals selection, offering a solid probability backed by recent form and season data.

Model Chance61.7% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+14.1 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance61.7% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+14.1 pts)
Strong positive
Dunkerque Scoring Rate0.8 goals per game
Positive
Guingamp Scoring Rate1.4 goals per game
Neutral
Head-to-Head Average Goals1.9 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given both teams’ cautious recent form and defensive tendencies. Dunkerque’s low scoring and Guingamp’s moderate attack suggest limited goal-scoring chances. The data supports a tight game where goals will be at a premium, making this a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture’s low scoring profile is reinforced by Dunkerque’s defensive discipline and Guingamp’s inconsistent finishing, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice for bettors seeking a controlled match outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Dunkerque scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 1.4 on average

Guingamp averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match

Both teams have a 40% rate of both teams scoring in recent games

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9 per game, indicating a trend towards low-scoring affairs.
  • This sample suggests a steady tempo with limited goal opportunities, likely influenced by tactical caution and defensive focus.
  • The trend supports an Under 2.5 Goals outcome, reflecting consistent historical scoring patterns between these teams.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Dunkerque0.8
Avg goals scored
Guingamp1.4
Dunkerque1.4
Avg goals conceded
Guingamp1.2
Dunkerque40%
BTTS rate
Guingamp40%
Dunkerque20%
Over 2.5 goals
Guingamp60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 48% · edge +14.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring records, with Dunkerque averaging 0.8 and Guingamp 1.4 goals per game. Both teams to score occurs in only 40% of recent matches for each side, supporting a scenario where one or both teams may fail to score. The head-to-head average of 1.9 goals further confirms a tendency towards fewer goals and limited BTTS outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGuingamp Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 53% · edge +11.3 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Guingamp to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Dunkerque Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Dunkerque to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 61.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+14.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Dunkerque and 60% for Guingamp, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Dunkerque

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
30 Oct 2026A Rodez0-1
23 Oct 2026H Metz1-1
17 Oct 2026A Nantes3-2
09 Oct 2026H Annecy0-1
18 Sep 2026A PAU0-2

Guingamp

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
31 Oct 2026H Saint Etienne3-0
23 Oct 2026A Clermont Foot2-0
16 Oct 2026H PAU1-2
09 Oct 2026A Nancy0-1
19 Sep 2026H RED Star FC 931-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 81% vs implied 69% · edge +11.2 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Guingamp Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Guingamp to WinBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Dunkerque Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Dunkerque to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Recent form data shows Dunkerque with 4 points and Guingamp with 6 from their last matches, reflecting moderate momentum. Dunkerque’s low scoring and 20% Over 2.5 rate contrast with Guingamp’s higher 60% Over 2.5 rate, suggesting Guingamp’s games are more open but recent results favor cautious play. This mixed form profile supports a low-scoring outcome with potential for tight margins.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Dunkerque Over 2.5
60%Guingamp Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9 per game, indicating a trend towards low-scoring affairs. This sample suggests a steady tempo with limited goal opportunities, likely influenced by tactical caution and defensive focus. The trend supports an Under 2.5 Goals outcome, reflecting consistent historical scoring patterns between these teams.

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