Football Stats Hub

Germany crestGermany
v
Greece crestGreece

UEFA Nations League | Sun 27 Sep, 19:45

Germany v Greece Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Germany face Greece in UEFA Nations League on Sun 27 Sep, 19:45. Greece vs Germany preview: Group leaders out to frustrate Klopp’s side again. Greece’s unbeaten start and home advantage support scoring exactly once, while Germany’s recent win and attacking options back a single goal.

BT4Y match pick

Both Teams To Score YES

  • At 6/10, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 63%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.
  • – Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win over DFB-Team in 12 meetings.
  • Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Germany.
  • Germany sit 3 in the table, while Greece sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 58% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 63% implied by the current price. Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Germany. – Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win over DFB-Team in 12 meetings.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 63% implied
Negative
Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Germany sit 3 in the table, while Greece sit 2.Visible data support
Positive
– Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Germany Win is the preferred angle because – Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win over DFB-Team in 12 meetings. Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Germany. Greece carry the stronger scoring threat, but Germany must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Greece carry the stronger scoring threat, but Germany must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

– Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win over DFB-Team in 12 meetings.

Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Germany.

Germany have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Germany Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Germany sit 3 in the table, while Greece sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Germany1
    Avg goals scored
    Greece2
    Germany1
    Avg goals conceded
    Greece1
    Germany100%
    BTTS rate
    Greece100%
    Germany0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Greece100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Nations League hubfull betting preview for Germany v Greececorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGermany to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 70% · edge -12.2 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 51%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Germany Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.23
    Check odds @ 1.23
    Germany to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Germany

    D
    Last 50W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 0L
    24 Sep 2026A Netherlands1-1

    Greece

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    24 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1
    Market aligned with main pickGermany to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 70% · edge -12.2 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Germany Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.23
    Check odds @ 1.23
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Germany Over 2.5
    100%Greece Over 2.5
    4.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Germany sit at 0% and Greece sit at 100% with the H2H average at 4.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Loading deeper match data…