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Gubbio crestGubbio
v
Grosseto crestGrosseto

Serie C - Girone B | Sat 14 Nov, 16:30

Gubbio v Grosseto Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Grosseto arrives in strong form, positioned third in Serie C - Girone B with 23 points, contrasting sharply with Gubbio's 19th place and 8 points. Grosseto's recent performances have been marked by a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game and a high rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting an aggressive style. Gubbio, struggling for goals and points, has yet to score in recent outings, indicating offensive difficulties. This clash presents Grosseto as the clear favorite, with their attacking momentum and league standing setting a challenging task for Gubbio.

BT4Y best bet

Grosseto to Win

  • Grosseto ranks 3rd with 23 points, Gubbio 19th with 8 points
  • Grosseto averages 2.4 goals per game, Gubbio has scored 0 recently
  • Grosseto's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Gubbio's 0%
  • Grosseto has an 80% BTTS rate, Gubbio has yet to score in recent matches

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Grosseto to win, assigning a 70% chance supported by their superior league position and offensive output. Grosseto's high goal-scoring rate and frequent Over 2.5 Goals matches indicate a dynamic attack capable of breaking down Gubbio's defense, which has conceded 1.2 goals per game but struggles offensively. The significant of 28% at of 2.38 highlights this as a positive-value bet with standard staking recommended.

Model Probability57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormGrosseto's 8 points vs Gubbio's 1 point recently
Positive
Goal ScoringGrosseto 2.4 goals/game vs Gubbio 0 recently
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Grosseto's superior form and attacking prowess make them the tactical and statistical favorite in this Serie C clash. Their ability to consistently score and pressure opponents contrasts with Gubbio's offensive struggles, suggesting Grosseto should secure the win if they maintain their current momentum.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Grosseto's attacking rhythm and league standing give them a clear edge, but they must convert chances efficiently to avoid any upset against a defensively cautious Gubbio.”

Key Data Signals

Grosseto to Win evidence

Grosseto ranks 3rd with 23 points, Gubbio 19th with 8 points

Grosseto averages 2.4 goals per game, Gubbio has scored 0 recently

Grosseto's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Gubbio's 0%

Grosseto has an 80% BTTS rate, Gubbio has yet to score in recent matches

What To Watch In The Data

Grosseto to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Grosseto's games have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style.
  • This trend suggests the fixture is likely to see multiple goals, driven by Grosseto's offensive capabilities and Gubbio's defensive challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gubbio0
Avg goals scored
Grosseto2.4
Gubbio1.2
Avg goals conceded
Grosseto2.2
Gubbio0%
BTTS rate
Grosseto80%
Gubbio0%
Over 2.5 goals
Grosseto80%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Grosseto's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS rate, driven by their potent offense averaging 2.4 goals per game. Gubbio's recent lack of goals contrasts sharply, indicating a likely open game where Grosseto's attack could dominate and produce multiple goals.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Grosseto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 57% for Grosseto to Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Grosseto have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 1 for Gubbio.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gubbio

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
07 Nov 2026A Forli0-1
01 Nov 2026H Vis Pesaro0-0
23 Oct 2026A Pineto0-1
18 Oct 2026H Atalanta II0-2
10 Oct 2026A Spezia0-2

Grosseto

LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
08 Nov 2026H Pescara1-3
31 Oct 2026A Vado2-2
25 Oct 2026H Reggiana2-0
16 Oct 2026A Livorno4-4
10 Oct 2026A Vis Pesaro3-2
Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Grosseto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Grosseto's recent form is markedly superior, earning 8 points with consistent goal scoring, while Gubbio has struggled to gain points or score goals. This momentum gap underlines Grosseto's and readiness to control the match tempo and outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Gubbio Over 2.5
80%Grosseto Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Grosseto's games have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style. This trend suggests the fixture is likely to see multiple goals, driven by Grosseto's offensive capabilities and Gubbio's defensive challenges.

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