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Athletic Carpi crestAthletic Carpi
v
Giana Erminio crestGiana Erminio

Serie C - Girone A | Sat 14 Nov, 16:30

Athletic Carpi v Giana Erminio Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Carpi and Giana Erminio meet in a Serie C - Girone A clash where both teams are struggling near the bottom of the table, separated by just one point. Recent form shows both sides have been involved in high-scoring matches, with Athletic Carpi scoring 1.2 goals per game but conceding 1.8, while Giana Erminio averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. This suggests an open contest with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, setting the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter with both teams eager to climb the standings.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% rate of matches finishing Over 2.5 Goals this season.
  • Athletic Carpi concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Giana Erminio scores 1.4 goals per game, showing attacking potential.
  • Recent form shows both sides involved in high-scoring games, with Athletic Carpi and Giana Erminio having 60% and 80% BTTS rates respectively.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2 goals, but recent team form suggests more goals likely this time.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 64% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking tendencies and defensive weaknesses of both Athletic Carpi and Giana Erminio. Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 rate this season, supported by recent matches where goals have been plentiful. The implied of 1.85 offer positive value against the market's 54.1% chance, making this a statistically supported pick for a high-scoring game. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Chance64% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+9.9 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance64% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+9.9 pts)
Positive
Value Edge64% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+9.9 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% both teams
Strong positive
Defensive ConcessionAthletic Carpi concedes 1.8 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as both Athletic Carpi and Giana Erminio have shown defensive vulnerabilities and a propensity for goals in recent games. The combination of their offensive output and defensive lapses suggests Over 2.5 Goals is a strong tactical and statistical call for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match goal expectation

“This fixture features two teams with leaky defenses and decent attacking output, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation given their recent scoring patterns and league pressure.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% rate of matches finishing Over 2.5 Goals this season.

Athletic Carpi concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Giana Erminio scores 1.4 goals per game, showing attacking potential.

Recent form shows both sides involved in high-scoring games, with Athletic Carpi and Giana Erminio having 60% and 80% BTTS rates respectively.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2, slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold.
  • However, recent team form and season trends with 80% Over 2.5 matches suggest an increased tempo and attacking intent that could push this fixture above that mark.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Athletic Carpi1.2
Avg goals scored
Giana Erminio1.4
Athletic Carpi1.8
Avg goals conceded
Giana Erminio1.4
Athletic Carpi60%
BTTS rate
Giana Erminio80%
Athletic Carpi80%
Over 2.5 goals
Giana Erminio80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 54% · edge +9.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both Athletic Carpi and Giana Erminio have high BTTS rates of 60% and 80% respectively, reflecting matches where both sides find the net. Their combined attacking averages and defensive concessions support a game with multiple goals and goals from both teams, aligning well with Over 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 54% · edge +9.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Giana Erminio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Giana Erminio to WinBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Athletic Carpi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Athletic Carpi to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 64% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+9.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Athletic Carpi and 80% for Giana Erminio, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Athletic Carpi

DLWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
08 Nov 2026A Folgore Caratese0-0
01 Nov 2026H Renate0-5
24 Oct 2026A Alcione2-1
17 Oct 2026H Lumezzane3-1
10 Oct 2026A Pergolettese1-2

Giana Erminio

DLWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
08 Nov 2026H Cittadella0-0
31 Oct 2026H Alcione1-3
25 Oct 2026A Desenzano Calvina2-1
19 Oct 2026H Union Brescia2-1
11 Oct 2026A Renate2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Giana Erminio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Giana Erminio to WinBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Athletic Carpi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Athletic Carpi to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form data shows both teams have been involved in matches with high goal totals, with Athletic Carpi and Giana Erminio maintaining an 80% Over 2.5 rate. Their offensive output combined with defensive vulnerabilities indicates momentum towards another goal-rich encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Athletic Carpi Over 2.5
80%Giana Erminio Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2, slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold. However, recent team form and season trends with 80% Over 2.5 matches suggest an increased tempo and attacking intent that could push this fixture above that mark.

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