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Peterborough crestPeterborough
v
Oxford United crestOxford United

League One | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Peterborough v Oxford United Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 18:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Oxford United arrives in strong form, sitting third in League One with 26 points, contrasting with Peterborough's struggle near the relegation zone with just 10 points. Oxford's defensive solidity, conceding only 0.4 goals per game recently, underpins their , while Peterborough's leaky defense has allowed 2 goals per match. Oxford's tactical discipline and attacking threat, led by key players, position them well to exploit Peterborough's vulnerabilities in this crucial fixture on November 14th.

BT4Y best bet

Oxford United to Win

  • Oxford United ranks 3rd with 26 points; Peterborough is 22nd with 10 points.
  • Oxford concedes only 0.4 goals per game recently, Peterborough concedes 2.
  • Oxford averages 19.4 shots and 6.2 shots on target per match, showing offensive pressure.
  • Peterborough has a high BTTS rate (80%) but Oxford's defense limits goals conceded.
  • O'Donkor is a key attacker with nearly 1 goal per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Oxford United to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive strength. Oxford's low goals conceded rate (0.4 per game) and higher shot volume indicate control and attacking efficiency. Peterborough's defensive frailties and lower points tally reinforce Oxford's advantage. The price at 2.4 offers positive value given the model's implied chance of 41.7%. This pick aligns well with tactical and statistical evidence, making Oxford United a compelling selection for this League One clash.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormOxford concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Offensive PressureOxford averages 19.4 shots per game
Positive
Peterborough Defensive WeaknessConcedes 2 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Oxford United's solid defensive record and effective attacking players like G. O'Donkor provide a tactical edge over Peterborough, whose defensive struggles and low points tally make them vulnerable. The data supports Oxford's likelihood to secure victory in this League One fixture, reflecting both form and quality differences.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Oxford United's disciplined defense combined with their attacking efficiency makes them a strong contender to win this match, especially against a Peterborough side that has struggled defensively this season.”

Key Data Signals

Oxford United to Win evidence

Oxford United ranks 3rd with 26 points; Peterborough is 22nd with 10 points.

Oxford concedes only 0.4 goals per game recently, Peterborough concedes 2.

Oxford averages 19.4 shots and 6.2 shots on target per match, showing offensive pressure.

Peterborough has a high BTTS rate (80%) but Oxford's defense limits goals conceded.

What To Watch In The Data

Oxford United to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Peterborough's recent matches have a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, but Oxford's defensive discipline tempers this trend, indicating a potentially tighter game with fewer goals than Peterborough's average suggests.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Peterborough1.4
Avg goals scored
Oxford United1.2
Peterborough2
Avg goals conceded
Oxford United0.4
Peterborough80%
BTTS rate
Oxford United40%
Peterborough60%
Over 2.5 goals
Oxford United20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Peterborough's recent matches show an 80% BTTS rate and 60% Over 2.5 goals, indicating open games. Conversely, Oxford's matches have a lower BTTS rate (40%) and only 20% Over 2.5 goals, reflecting defensive solidity. This contrast suggests a tactical battle where Oxford aims to control the game and limit goals, reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring affair.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOxford United to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Oxford United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 56.7% for Oxford United to Win sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Oxford United have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 5 for Peterborough.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Peterborough

LDLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
31 Oct 2026H Luton0-2
24 Oct 2026A Bromley1-1
20 Oct 2026A Huddersfield1-4
17 Oct 2026H Burton Albion2-2
10 Oct 2026A Leicester3-1

Oxford United

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
04 Nov 2026H Reading2-0
31 Oct 2026A Barnsley1-1
27 Oct 2026H Stockport County1-0
24 Oct 2026H Bradford0-0
20 Oct 2026H Wigan2-1
Market aligned with main pickOxford United to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Oxford United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Oxford United's recent form is strong, earning 11 points with a tight defense conceding only 0.4 goals per game. Peterborough's form is weaker, with just 5 points and a leaky defense allowing 2 goals per game. This form disparity favors Oxford's ability to control the match and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Peterborough Over 2.5
20%Oxford United Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, suggesting moderate scoring. Peterborough's recent matches have a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, but Oxford's defensive discipline tempers this trend, indicating a potentially tighter game with fewer goals than Peterborough's average suggests.

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