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Chesterfield crestChesterfield

League Two | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 09:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chesterfield travel to face Bristol Rovers in a League Two clash where recent form and attacking intent suggest an edge for the visitors. Chesterfield have been more prolific offensively, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Bristol Rovers' 0.6, while both sides concede at a similar rate. Chesterfield's higher league position and better recent points haul underline their momentum. Tactical discipline and sharper finishing could be decisive in this encounter, with Chesterfield aiming to capitalize on their offensive strengths away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Chesterfield to Win

  • Chesterfield have a strong recent run with 5 points compared to Bristol Rovers' 1 in last matches.
  • Chesterfield average 1.8 goals per game, tripling Bristol Rovers' 0.6 scoring rate.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for goals.
  • Chesterfield's top attackers, including L. Koroma, show high shot and goal threat metrics.
  • Chesterfield rank 10th in the league, above Bristol Rovers at 17th, reflecting better overall season performance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Chesterfield to win with a 66.9% chance, supported by their superior recent form and attacking statistics. Chesterfield's higher average goals per game and greater shot volume indicate stronger offensive capabilities. The of 22.5% suggests the current offer good value. Defensive concession rates are similar, but Chesterfield's ability to create and convert chances, especially through key players like L. Koroma, strengthens their winning prospects. No data limitations affect in this assessment.

Recent form pointsChesterfield 5 vs Bristol Rovers 1
Strong positive
Goals per gameChesterfield 1.8 vs Bristol Rovers 0.6
Strong positive
Shot volumeChesterfield 14.8 avg shots vs Bristol Rovers 13.6
Positive
Top player goal threatL. Marsh 0.6 goals/90 mins
Positive
League positionChesterfield 10th vs Bristol Rovers 17th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Chesterfield's superior attacking form and recent points accumulation make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and goals per game, combined with key players in good scoring form, provides a solid data-backed reason to expect a win. Bristol Rovers' struggles in front of goal and lower league standing further support this outlook.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Chesterfield's offensive efficiency and momentum position them well to capitalize on Bristol Rovers' defensive vulnerabilities, making them the logical choice for the win in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Chesterfield to Win evidence

Chesterfield have a strong recent run with 5 points compared to Bristol Rovers' 1 in last matches.

Chesterfield average 1.8 goals per game, tripling Bristol Rovers' 0.6 scoring rate.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for goals.

Chesterfield's top attackers, including L. Koroma, show high shot and goal threat metrics.

What To Watch In The Data

Chesterfield to Win notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring games.
  • Both teams' recent matches also show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and an open tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bristol Rovers0.6
Avg goals scored
Chesterfield1.8
Bristol Rovers1.8
Avg goals conceded
Chesterfield1.8
Bristol Rovers60%
BTTS rate
Chesterfield80%
Bristol Rovers60%
Over 2.5 goals
Chesterfield60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 82%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Chesterfield boasting an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting open play and goal-scoring opportunities for both sides. The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 3.33, reinforcing the likelihood of goals and BTTS scenarios in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickChesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Chesterfield Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 59.4% for Chesterfield to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Chesterfield have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Bristol Rovers.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bristol Rovers

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
31 Oct 2026A Fleetwood Town1-3
24 Oct 2026H Swindon Town0-0
20 Oct 2026H Salford City1-2
17 Oct 2026A Shrewsbury0-1
10 Oct 2026H Barnet1-3

Chesterfield

LWDLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
30 Oct 2026A Newport County1-4
24 Oct 2026H Crewe5-1
20 Oct 2026H Colchester1-1
17 Oct 2026A Port Vale0-1
10 Oct 2026A Crawley Town2-2
Market aligned with main pickChesterfield to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Chesterfield Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Chesterfield's recent form shows a clear upward trajectory with 5 points gained recently, contrasting with Bristol Rovers' single point. This momentum reflects improved attacking efficiency and defensive stability, which should translate into and control during the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Bristol Rovers Over 2.5
60%Chesterfield Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring games. Both teams' recent matches also show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and an open tempo.

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