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Casarano crestCasarano
v
AZ Picerno crestAZ Picerno

Serie C - Girone C | Sat 14 Nov, 13:30

Casarano v AZ Picerno Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Casarano and AZ Picerno meet in Serie C - Girone C with both sides showing contrasting recent form and offensive patterns. Casarano has struggled to find the net consistently, scoring just one goal in their last few matches, while AZ Picerno has been more productive, averaging 1.4 goals per game. The tactical setup suggests an open game as both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, with Casarano conceding 1.6 goals per match and Picerno 1.0. This fixture carries importance for both sides to climb the standings, likely encouraging attacking intent and goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Casarano has a 40% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.
  • AZ Picerno has a higher over 2.5 goals rate at 60%, indicating more open games.
  • The two previous meetings averaged 3.5 goals per game, suggesting a history of goal-rich encounters.
  • Casarano concedes 1.6 goals per match, showing defensive frailty that can lead to more goals.
  • AZ Picerno’s recent form includes scoring 1.4 goals per game, supporting the potential for multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a favorable bet with a 58.1% chance, slightly above the implied market chance of 54.1%, indicating a small positive . Both teams have shown tendencies toward open play and conceding goals, with recent matches and head-to-head history supporting a higher goal count. The attacking output of AZ Picerno combined with Casarano’s defensive vulnerabilities creates a scenario conducive to multiple goals. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection, making it a solid choice based on current form and historical trends.

Model Chance58.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+4 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance58.1% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+4 pts)
Neutral
Casarano Defensive Record1.6 goals conceded per game
Positive
AZ Picerno Offensive Output1.4 goals scored per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.5 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open contest with both teams pushing for goals given their recent scoring and conceding patterns. AZ Picerno’s better offensive form combined with Casarano’s defensive struggles suggests Over 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection. The historical goal-rich meetings add that this fixture can produce multiple goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“This match features two teams with contrasting defensive records but a shared tendency for open play, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling pick. The head-to-head history and recent scoring trends point to a lively encounter with several goal-scoring chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Casarano has a 40% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.

AZ Picerno has a higher over 2.5 goals rate at 60%, indicating more open games.

The two previous meetings averaged 3.5 goals per game, suggesting a history of goal-rich encounters.

Casarano concedes 1.6 goals per match, showing defensive frailty that can lead to more goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 3.5 goals, indicating a trend toward high-scoring games between these teams.
  • This recent sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both sides contributing to the goal tally in their encounters.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Casarano1
Avg goals scored
AZ Picerno1.4
Casarano1.6
Avg goals conceded
AZ Picerno1
Casarano40%
BTTS rate
AZ Picerno60%
Casarano40%
Over 2.5 goals
AZ Picerno60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 54% · edge +4 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown a propensity for matches with multiple goals, with AZ Picerno’s 60% over 2.5 rate and Casarano’s 40% indicating a tendency toward open games. The head-to-head average of 3.5 goals further supports the likelihood of goals from both sides, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical route.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Casarano

LDWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
07 Nov 2026A Casertana0-1
02 Nov 2026H Foggia2-2
26 Oct 2026A Crotone1-0
18 Oct 2026A Cavese2-5
11 Oct 2026H Salernitana0-0

AZ Picerno

DWWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
09 Nov 2026H Bari1-1
31 Oct 2026A Cavese2-1
26 Oct 2026H Salernitana3-0
18 Oct 2026A Barletta0-1
12 Oct 2026H Cosenza1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
AZ Picerno Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
AZ Picerno to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Casarano Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Casarano to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Recent form shows Casarano scoring only 1 goal in their last matches and conceding 1.6 per game, while AZ Picerno scores 1.4 and concedes 1.0. AZ Picerno’s better offensive form and Casarano’s defensive struggles suggest a match prone to multiple goals, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 54% · edge +4 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
AZ Picerno Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
AZ Picerno to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Casarano Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Casarano to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 58.1% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Casarano and 60% for AZ Picerno, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Casarano Over 2.5
60%AZ Picerno Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches averaged 3.5 goals, indicating a trend toward high-scoring games between these teams. This recent sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both sides contributing to the goal tally in their encounters.

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