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Kelty Hearts crestKelty Hearts
v
Stranraer crestStranraer

League Two | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Kelty Hearts v Stranraer Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kelty Hearts and Stranraer meet in a League Two clash where attacking intent and recent scoring trends set the stage for an open game. Stranraer currently lead the table with strong defensive form, conceding just 0.2 goals per match, while Kelty Hearts rank fifth and have a more balanced goal record. Both teams have shown willingness to engage offensively, with Kelty Hearts averaging 1.4 goals per game and Stranraer 2.2. This contrast in styles and the stakes involved suggest a match where goals are likely, though defensive discipline from Stranraer could temper the final tally.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Kelty Hearts score 1.4 goals per game and have a 60% Over 2.5 rate recently
  • Stranraer lead League Two with only 0.2 goals conceded per game, showing defensive strength
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.13 across eight meetings, indicating open matches
  • Recent form shows Kelty Hearts and Stranraer have contrasting BTTS rates: 60% vs 20% respectively
  • for Over 2.5 Goals is 60.9%, close to the implied market chance of 61.7%

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 60.9% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, supported by Kelty Hearts' attacking output and historical head-to-head averages exceeding three goals per game. While Stranraer's defensive solidity could limit scoring, Kelty Hearts' 60% recent Over 2.5 rate and the fixture's open nature justify the selection. The price is slightly short, so a cautious stake is advised. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Kelty Hearts scoring rate1.4 goals per game
Positive
Stranraer defensive record0.2 goals conceded per game
Neutral
Head-to-head average goals3.13 goals per match
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 ratesKelty Hearts 60%, Stranraer 40%
Positive
Price sensitivity60.9% model chance vs 61.7% implied (-0.8 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a contest where Kelty Hearts push forward to break down Stranraer's disciplined defense. The attacking impetus from Kelty Hearts combined with historical goal-rich encounters supports the Over 2.5 Goals selection. Stranraer's defensive resilience may keep the scoreline tighter, but the fixture's offensive dynamics favor multiple goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring dynamics

“This match features a clash between Kelty Hearts' proactive attack and Stranraer's stingy defense, setting up a tactical battle that often yields goals. The historical average of over three goals per meeting highlights the likelihood of an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Kelty Hearts score 1.4 goals per game and have a 60% Over 2.5 rate recently

Stranraer lead League Two with only 0.2 goals conceded per game, showing defensive strength

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.13 across eight meetings, indicating open matches

Recent form shows Kelty Hearts and Stranraer have contrasting BTTS rates: 60% vs 20% respectively

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match stand at 3.13, indicating a history of open, goal-rich encounters.
  • This trend suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals.
  • The sample size is sufficient to consider this a meaningful indicator of the fixture's scoring potential, supporting the model's selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kelty Hearts1.4
Avg goals scored
Stranraer2.2
Kelty Hearts1
Avg goals conceded
Stranraer0.2
Kelty Hearts60%
BTTS rate
Stranraer20%
Kelty Hearts60%
Over 2.5 goals
Stranraer40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 62% · edge -0.8 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Kelty Hearts average 1.4 goals per game with a 60% Over 2.5 rate, indicating consistent attacking output. Stranraer, while strong defensively, have a 40% Over 2.5 rate and a lower BTTS rate at 20%, reflecting fewer matches with both teams scoring. The head-to-head average of 3.13 goals suggests matches tend to be open, with Kelty Hearts' offense likely to challenge Stranraer's defense.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kelty Hearts

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
07 Nov 2026A Annan Athletic2-1
31 Oct 2026H Elgin City0-1
17 Oct 2026H Forfar Athletic2-1
10 Oct 2026A Stirling Albion1-2
03 Oct 2026A Spartans2-0

Stranraer

WDWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 3D 0L
07 Nov 2026H Stirling Albion3-0
31 Oct 2026H Clyde0-0
17 Oct 2026A Spartans2-0
10 Oct 2026A Annan Athletic6-1
03 Oct 2026H Edinburgh City0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 71% · edge +12.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Stranraer Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Stranraer to WinBetUK guide price · model 60%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Kelty Hearts Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Kelty Hearts to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Kelty Hearts have earned 9 points recently, scoring 1.4 goals per match and maintaining a 60% Over 2.5 rate, indicating a tendency for higher-scoring games. Stranraer have collected 11 points with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals per game and a lower Over 2.5 rate of 40%. This contrast suggests Kelty Hearts' offensive momentum may challenge Stranraer's defense, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals pick.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 62% · edge -0.8 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Stranraer Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Stranraer to WinBetUK guide price · model 60%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Kelty Hearts Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The 60.9% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (-0.8 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Kelty Hearts and 40% for Stranraer, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Kelty Hearts Over 2.5
40%Stranraer Over 2.5
3.13H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match stand at 3.13, indicating a history of open, goal-rich encounters. This trend suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals. The sample size is sufficient to consider this a meaningful indicator of the fixture's scoring potential, supporting the model's selection.

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