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Sheffield Wednesday crestSheffield Wednesday
v
Plymouth crestPlymouth

League One | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 11:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth meet in a League One clash where both teams have shown moderate scoring form but also defensive solidity. Sheffield Wednesday averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, while Plymouth scores 1.0 and concedes 1.6. Recent form data suggests a cautious approach from both sides, with Sheffield Wednesday having a low rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Plymouth's slightly higher over 2.5 rate is tempered by their defensive vulnerabilities. The tactical setup and current momentum point to a match likely to stay tight and under the 2.5 goals threshold.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Sheffield Wednesday averages only 20% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, indicating low-scoring tendencies.
  • Plymouth concedes 1.6 goals per game but scores just 1.0, suggesting limited attacking threat.
  • Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, showing moderate likelihood of both sides scoring.
  • Sheffield Wednesday averages 16 shots per game with 5.8 on target, showing controlled but not overwhelming attacking pressure.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 over the last 10 meetings, slightly above 2.5 but recent form suggests a tighter contest.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 54.7% chance, reflecting the teams' balanced attacking and defensive profiles. Sheffield Wednesday's low over 2.5 rate (20%) and Plymouth's modest scoring output support a cautious game with fewer goals. Despite Plymouth's higher concession rate, their limited offensive threat and Sheffield Wednesday's controlled shot volume suggest a match unlikely to produce many goals. The price at 2.35 offers positive value against the implied 42.6% chance, making this a sensible selection based on statistical trends and tactical context.

Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Rate20%
Strong positive
Plymouth Goals For per Game1.0
Positive
BTTS Rate Both Teams40%
Neutral
Model Probability54.7% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+12.1 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Probability54.7% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+12.1 pts)
Positive
Main risk

A 1-1 draw reflects the balance between two promotion contenders with strong attacks but defensive challenges.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based goal expectation

“This fixture looks set for a tactical battle where defensive organisation will limit goal-scoring opportunities, making Under 2.5 Goals a compelling angle based on current team dynamics and form.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Sheffield Wednesday averages only 20% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, indicating low-scoring tendencies.

Plymouth concedes 1.6 goals per game but scores just 1.0, suggesting limited attacking threat.

Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, showing moderate likelihood of both sides scoring.

Sheffield Wednesday averages 16 shots per game with 5.8 on target, showing controlled but not overwhelming attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, slightly above 2.5.
  • However, recent matches and current form indicate a slower tempo and more cautious approach, reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring game in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sheffield Wednesday1.4
Avg goals scored
Plymouth1
Sheffield Wednesday1.2
Avg goals conceded
Plymouth1.6
Sheffield Wednesday40%
BTTS rate
Plymouth40%
Sheffield Wednesday20%
Over 2.5 goals
Plymouth60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 43% · edge +12.1 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates at 40%, indicating a balanced chance of both sides scoring. However, Sheffield Wednesday's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) and Plymouth's modest scoring output point towards a game with limited goal volume and a higher chance of finishing under 2.5 goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One hubfull betting preview for Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouthcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 75% · edge -0.2 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Plymouth Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Plymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Sheffield Wednesday Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Sheffield Wednesday to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 54.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 42.6% implied by the current price (+12.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Sheffield Wednesday and 60% for Plymouth, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Other Opportunities In This Market Match requires picking the exact winner after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, trading the flexibility of the goals market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sheffield Wednesday

DDLLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
01 Nov 2026H Blackpool1-1
27 Oct 2026H Cambridge United1-1
24 Oct 2026A Doncaster0-2
20 Oct 2026A Notts County0-2
17 Oct 2026H AFC Wimbledon5-0

Plymouth

DWLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
31 Oct 2026H Reading0-0
24 Oct 2026A Cambridge United3-2
20 Oct 2026A Stevenage0-3
17 Oct 2026H Huddersfield0-2
10 Oct 2026H AFC Wimbledon2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Plymouth Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Plymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Sheffield Wednesday Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Sheffield Wednesday to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form data shows Sheffield Wednesday scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 1.2 per game, with only 20% of matches going over 2.5 goals. Plymouth has scored 1.0 and conceded 1.6 per game, with a higher over 2.5 rate of 60%, but their defensive vulnerabilities have not translated into consistent high-scoring games. This form profile supports a low-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5
60%Plymouth Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, slightly above 2.5. However, recent matches and current form indicate a slower tempo and more cautious approach, reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring game in this fixture.

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