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Lumezzane crestLumezzane
v
Trento crestTrento

Serie C - Girone A | Sat 14 Nov, 16:30

Lumezzane v Trento Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone A clash features Trento visiting Lumezzane on a Saturday afternoon. Trento currently holds third place with 27 points, showcasing strong form with 13 points recently and a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Lumezzane, positioned 11th with 16 points, has struggled offensively, averaging 0.8 goals per match and securing only 5 points in recent fixtures. Trento's more consistent performances and defensive solidity set the stage for a challenging encounter for Lumezzane, who will need to improve their attacking output to contest effectively.

BT4Y best bet

Trento to Win

  • Trento ranks 3rd with 27 points, showing strong league form.
  • Lumezzane sits 11th with 16 points and weaker recent results.
  • Trento concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating defensive strength.
  • Lumezzane averages just 0.8 goals scored per match, struggling offensively.
  • Trento has a 70% to win, with positive value at 1.83 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Trento's chances to win are supported by their superior recent form and defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game compared to Lumezzane's 1.2. The model assigns a 70% probability to a Trento victory, reflecting their consistent point accumulation and stronger league standing. The of 1.83 offer positive value with a 15.4% edge, making this a solid selection based on both statistical performance and tactical consistency. No data limitations or price warnings affect this pick.

Recent FormTrento has 13 points recently vs. Lumezzane's 5
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthTrento concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Offensive OutputTrento scores 1.6 goals per game
Positive
League StandingTrento 3rd vs. Lumezzane 11th
Positive
Value Edge69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Trento's superior defensive record and recent form make them the clear favorites to claim victory. Their ability to limit goals conceded while maintaining steady scoring gives them a tactical and statistical edge over Lumezzane, who have struggled to find the net and accumulate points recently.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Trento's disciplined defense and consistent point haul position them well to overcome Lumezzane's limited offensive threat, making a Trento win a compelling tactical and statistical choice.”

Key Data Signals

Trento to Win evidence

Trento ranks 3rd with 27 points, showing strong league form.

Lumezzane sits 11th with 16 points and weaker recent results.

Trento concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating defensive strength.

Lumezzane averages just 0.8 goals scored per match, struggling offensively.

What To Watch In The Data

Trento to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, suggesting moderate scoring matches.
  • Trento's higher Over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Lumezzane's (40%) indicates a tendency for more open play when Trento is involved, but the overall trend points to a balanced tempo with potential for controlled scoring rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lumezzane0.8
Avg goals scored
Trento1.6
Lumezzane1.2
Avg goals conceded
Trento0.4
Lumezzane60%
BTTS rate
Trento40%
Lumezzane40%
Over 2.5 goals
Trento60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Trento averages 1.6 goals per game while conceding only 0.4, indicating a controlled attacking approach with defensive solidity. Lumezzane's 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded suggest a lower-scoring profile. The BTTS rates (Trento 40%, Lumezzane 60%) and moderate Over 2.5 rates imply a match leaning towards fewer goals and possible clean sheets, favoring a disciplined Trento win.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lumezzane

WDLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
06 Nov 2026A Alcione1-0
01 Nov 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo1-1
25 Oct 2026A Pergolettese1-2
17 Oct 2026A Athletic Carpi1-3
13 Oct 2026A Juventus U230-0

Trento

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 5D 0L
07 Nov 2026H Albinoleffe2-1
31 Oct 2026A Ospitaletto0-0
25 Oct 2026H Juventus U232-1
19 Oct 2026A Dolomiti Bellunesi3-0
11 Oct 2026H Folgore Caratese1-0
Market aligned with main pickTrento to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Trento Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Trento's recent form is markedly superior, earning 13 points compared to Lumezzane's 5. This reflects consistent performances and effective game management, especially defensively. Lumezzane's struggles to score and accumulate points highlight their current challenges, reinforcing Trento's advantage going into this match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickTrento to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Trento Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 69.6% for Trento to Win sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Trento have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 5 for Lumezzane.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lumezzane Over 2.5
60%Trento Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, suggesting moderate scoring matches. Trento's higher Over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Lumezzane's (40%) indicates a tendency for more open play when Trento is involved, but the overall trend points to a balanced tempo with potential for controlled scoring rather than a high-scoring shootout.

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