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UEFA Nations League | Sat 14 Nov, 17:00

Georgia v Hungary Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 10:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hungary and Georgia meet in the UEFA Nations League with both sides yet to score in the competition, highlighting a shared struggle in attack. Hungary's home advantage at the Puskás Aréna offers a platform to press for a breakthrough, supported by recent home wins against Kazakhstan and Finland. Georgia, despite possessing individual threats like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze, have been unable to convert chances into goals, emphasizing defensive solidity over offensive output. Both teams have conceded just once in their group matches, setting the stage for a tactical, low-scoring encounter where a single goal could be decisive.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have failed to score in their opening two Nations League matches.
  • All four combined fixtures between these teams in this campaign have finished under 2.5 goals.
  • Hungary conceded only once in 180 minutes of Nations League football.
  • Georgia kept three clean sheets in their last six matches, showing strong defensive resilience.
  • Recent matches show Hungary’s home scoring capability but immediate Nations League form suggests a tight game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with the strong defensive records and recent low-scoring matches of both Hungary and Georgia. Neither team has scored in their Nations League group games so far, and all their combined fixtures have stayed below three goals. Hungary's home defensive solidity and Georgia's multiple clean sheets in recent matches reinforce the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring game. The model rates this selection with a 66% chance, slightly above the implied market probability, reflecting in a cautious tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

Recent Nations League scoringBoth teams have zero goals scored in group matches
Strong positive
Defensive recordsHungary conceded 1 goal, Georgia conceded 1 goal in group
Strong positive
Historical low-scoring trendAll combined fixtures under 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Home advantageHungary’s recent home wins suggest potential for a single goal
Positive
Individual attacking threatsKvaratskhelia and Mikautadze have 23 international goals each but recent drought
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Verdict: The Under 2.5 Goals selection suits this fixture’s tactical setup and recent form. Hungary’s home platform and defensive discipline, combined with Georgia’s cautious away approach and goal drought, point to a match where scoring chances will be limited. Both teams’ solid defenses and shared scoring struggles make a low-scoring outcome the most plausible scenario.

Main risk

Both sides have solid defenses, making a single goal each plausible but multiple goals unlikely.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring outlook

“This fixture is a classic defensive standoff with both teams prioritizing structure over risk. Hungary’s home advantage might yield a goal, but Georgia’s resilience and attacking drought suggest the match will stay tight and under the 2.5 goals mark.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have failed to score in their opening two Nations League matches.

All four combined fixtures between these teams in this campaign have finished under 2.5 goals.

Hungary conceded only once in 180 minutes of Nations League football.

Georgia kept three clean sheets in their last six matches, showing strong defensive resilience.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have consistently produced under 2.5 goals, with Georgia’s last five fixtures all finishing low-scoring.
  • The single previous Nations League meeting averaged just one goal, reinforcing a trend of defensive discipline and limited attacking breakthroughs in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Georgia0
Avg goals scored
Hungary0.75
Georgia0.5
Avg goals conceded
Hungary0.5
Georgia0%
BTTS rate
Hungary25%
Georgia0%
Over 2.5 goals
Hungary25%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have failed to score in their opening Nations League matches, and all combined fixtures have produced fewer than three goals. Hungary’s single goal conceded and Georgia’s three clean sheets in six matches underline defensive strength. The BTTS No angle is supported by limited attacking output and cautious tactical setups.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionHungary Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Hungary to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Georgia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Georgia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 66.7% implied by the current price (-0.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Georgia and 25% for Hungary, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Demonstrated scoring capability in Budapest with recent 3-1 and 2-1 victories over Kazakhstan and Finland.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Georgia

DLDL
Last 50W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 2L
05 Oct 2026A Northern Ireland0-0
02 Oct 2026A Hungary0-1
28 Sep 2026H Ukraine0-0
25 Sep 2026H Northern Ireland0-1

Hungary

WWDL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
05 Oct 2026A Ukraine2-1
02 Oct 2026H Georgia1-0
28 Sep 2026A Northern Ireland0-0
25 Sep 2026H Ukraine0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 71% · edge +12.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Hungary Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Hungary to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Georgia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Georgia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data reveals both teams have struggled to score, with Georgia scoring zero goals and Hungary averaging 0.75 goals per game in recent matches. Both have maintained strong defensive records, conceding only 0.5 goals per game. The absence of goals in their Nations League campaigns and low BTTS rates reinforce the expectation of a low-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Georgia Over 2.5
25%Hungary Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have consistently produced under 2.5 goals, with Georgia’s last five fixtures all finishing low-scoring. The single previous Nations League meeting averaged just one goal, reinforcing a trend of defensive discipline and limited attacking breakthroughs in this fixture.

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