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Bromley crestBromley
v
Notts County crestNotts County

League One | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Bromley v Notts County Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 16:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League One clash features Bromley, struggling near the bottom of the table with just 9 points, hosting Notts County who sit 17th with 14 points. Notts County have shown better recent form, earning 7 points in their last matches compared to Bromley's single point. Bromley's defensive frailties have been exposed with an average of 2.6 goals conceded per game, while Notts County have been more solid at the back, conceding just 1 goal per match. The away side's more consistent attacking output and defensive stability set the stage for a competitive encounter with Notts County looking to extend their positive momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Notts County to Win

  • Notts County have a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.2 .
  • Bromley concede 2.6 goals per game on average, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Notts County average 11.2 shots per game, showing greater attacking pressure.
  • Bromley have only 1 point from recent matches, while Notts County have 7 points.
  • Roberts leads Notts County's attack with 2 goals and 1.31 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Notts County's 70% to win reflects their superior recent form, better defensive record, and higher attacking output compared to Bromley. The away team averages more shots and concedes fewer goals, indicating control in both attack and defense. The model identifies clear value at current of 2.2, supported by key players like C. Roberts who consistently threaten goal. Bromley's struggles at the back and poor recent results further strengthen the case for a Notts County victory.

Recent FormNotts County 7 points vs Bromley 1 point
Strong positive
Defensive RecordBromley concede 2.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Attacking PressureNotts County average 11.2 shots per game
Positive
Key Player ImpactC. Roberts 2 goals, 1.31 SOT/90
Positive
Value Edge60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Notts County's recent form and defensive solidity provide a strong foundation for victory against a struggling Bromley side. Their ability to generate more shots and control the game phases tactically supports the likelihood of an away win, making this selection a confident choice based on both form and data.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact

“Notts County's balanced attack and disciplined defense give them a clear tactical edge over Bromley, whose defensive lapses have been costly. The away team's momentum and key players like C. Roberts are decisive factors in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Notts County to Win evidence

Notts County have a 70% to win, with strong value at 2.2 .

Bromley concede 2.6 goals per game on average, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Notts County average 11.2 shots per game, showing greater attacking pressure.

Bromley have only 1 point from recent matches, while Notts County have 7 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Notts County to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, suggesting a moderately open game.
  • Bromley’s higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) contrasts with Notts County’s more conservative 20%, indicating that while goals are possible, Notts County’s defensive strength may limit the total goals scored.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bromley0.8
Avg goals scored
Notts County1.2
Bromley2.6
Avg goals conceded
Notts County1
Bromley60%
BTTS rate
Notts County40%
Bromley60%
Over 2.5 goals
Notts County20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Bromley’s matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals and BTTS, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities and open games. In contrast, Notts County’s games show lower over 2.5 (20%) and BTTS (40%) rates, indicating a more controlled approach. This suggests a potential for a moderate-scoring game with Notts County managing defensive risks effectively.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNotts County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Notts County Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 60.5% for Notts County to Win sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Notts County have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Bromley.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bromley

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
31 Oct 2026A Wigan2-3
27 Oct 2026A Milton Keynes Dons1-4
24 Oct 2026H Peterborough1-1
20 Oct 2026H Leicester0-4
17 Oct 2026A Stockport County0-1

Notts County

WDWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
31 Oct 2026A Mansfield Town2-0
24 Oct 2026H Stockport County1-1
20 Oct 2026H Sheffield Wednesday2-0
17 Oct 2026A Wycombe0-2
10 Oct 2026H Oxford United1-2
Market aligned with main pickNotts County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Notts County Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Notts County’s recent accumulation of 7 points contrasts sharply with Bromley’s single point, highlighting a clear momentum advantage. Notts County’s improved defensive performances and ability to create chances underpin their , while Bromley’s struggles to score and prevent goals have hindered their form.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Bromley Over 2.5
20%Notts County Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, suggesting a moderately open game. Bromley’s higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) contrasts with Notts County’s more conservative 20%, indicating that while goals are possible, Notts County’s defensive strength may limit the total goals scored.

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