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Reggiana crestReggiana
v
Livorno crestLivorno

Serie C - Girone B | Sat 14 Nov, 13:30

Reggiana v Livorno Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Reggiana and Livorno meet in Serie C - Girone B with both sides showing cautious recent form, each earning six points in their last matches. Both teams have averaged just over 1.5 goals conceded per game this season, reflecting defensive solidity but limited attacking output. Reggiana's low rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals contrasts with Livorno's more open approach, yet the tactical balance and stakes suggest a tight contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities. This encounter is poised to be a tactical battle where defensive discipline could dominate the narrative.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Reggiana concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.
  • Livorno has a higher over 2.5 goals rate (40%) but still moderate scoring.
  • Recent form shows both teams averaging around 1.5 goals scored per match.
  • Only one previous meeting with an average of 4 goals, but limited sample size.
  • Both teams have similar points and league positions, suggesting balanced competition.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 59.6% chance, reflecting the defensive tendencies and modest scoring rates of both teams. Reggiana's low over 2.5 goals frequency (20%) and Livorno's moderate rate (40%) indicate a likely tight game. The model sees value at 1.9 given the implied chance of 52.6%, supported by recent form data and season-long defensive solidity. The limited data sample means line-ups and tactical setups will be key, but the statistical profile aligns well with a low-scoring match.

Reggiana Defensive Record1.6 goals conceded per game
Positive
Livorno Over 2.5 Goals Rate40%
Neutral
Recent Goals ScoredAround 1.5 per game each
Positive
Model Probability59.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+7 pts)
Strong positive
Odds Value Edge59.6% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+7 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given both teams’ defensive discipline and modest attacking output. The recent form data shows limited goal-scoring, and the balanced league positions suggest a tight contest. Tactical caution and the importance of points for both sides support a low-scoring encounter.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical balance and scoring trends

“This fixture looks set for a tactical, low-scoring battle where defensive organization will be key. Both teams have shown restraint in attack recently, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Reggiana concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.

Recent form shows both teams averaging around 1.5 goals scored per match.

Only one previous meeting with an average of 4 goals, but limited sample size.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The single previous meeting between these teams featured four goals, but the limited sample size reduces its predictive value.
  • Recent trends over the last five matches for both teams show a preference for matches with fewer than three goals, driven by tactical caution and defensive focus, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Reggiana

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
07 Nov 2026A Atalanta II3-4
30 Oct 2026H Sambenedettese2-0
25 Oct 2026A Grosseto0-2
20 Oct 2026A Pineto0-2
17 Oct 2026H Torres2-0

Livorno

DWLDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
08 Nov 2026A Campobasso FC1-1
01 Nov 2026H Ostia Mare1-0
24 Oct 2026A Sambenedettese1-2
16 Oct 2026H Grosseto4-4
11 Oct 2026A Forli1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Livorno Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Livorno to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Reggiana Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Reggiana to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form shows both Reggiana and Livorno earning six points with similar goals scored and conceded per game, indicating balanced competitiveness. The low frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals for Reggiana (20%) and moderate rate for Livorno (40%) reflect a trend towards tighter matches, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Reggiana1.4
Avg goals scored
Livorno1.6
Reggiana1.6
Avg goals conceded
Livorno1.6
Reggiana20%
BTTS rate
Livorno80%
Reggiana20%
Over 2.5 goals
Livorno40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 53% · edge +7 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have modest scoring rates, with Reggiana scoring 1.4 and Livorno 1.6 goals per game. Reggiana's low BTTS rate (20%) contrasts with Livorno's higher rate (80%), suggesting that while Livorno often sees both teams scoring, Reggiana tends to be involved in tighter matches. This mix supports a low total goals outcome with possible limited BTTS occurrences.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Livorno Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Livorno to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Reggiana Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Reggiana to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 59.6% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Reggiana and 40% for Livorno, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Reggiana Over 2.5
40%Livorno Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
The single previous meeting between these teams featured four goals, but the limited sample size reduces its predictive value. Recent trends over the last five matches for both teams show a preference for matches with fewer than three goals, driven by tactical caution and defensive focus, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.

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