Renate
Desenzano CalvinaSerie C - Girone A | Sat 14 Nov, 13:30
Renate v Desenzano Calvina Stats
Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:45 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Renate hosts Desenzano Calvina in a Serie C - Girone A clash where Renate aims to capitalize on their stronger recent form and home advantage. Renate has accumulated 11 points and shows a more potent attack with 2.2 goals per game recently, compared to Desenzano Calvina's 0.8. Desenzano Calvina, sitting higher in the standings with 13 points, have struggled to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity, conceding 1.6 goals per game. This match presents an opportunity for Renate to assert control and improve their league position through tactical discipline and sharper finishing.
Renate to Win
- Renate holds a 74% to win, significantly above the implied market chance of 51.3%.
- Renate averages 2.2 goals per game recently, nearly triple Desenzano Calvina's 0.8 goals per game.
- Desenzano Calvina concedes 1.6 goals per game, higher than Renate's 1.2, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
- Renate's recent form yields 8 points versus Desenzano Calvina's 3, showing momentum advantage.
- Renate's Over 2.5 Goals rate is 80%, suggesting matches involving them tend to be higher scoring.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The model favors Renate to win due to their superior recent scoring form and defensive stability compared to Desenzano Calvina. Renate's 74% win probability reflects their momentum and home advantage, supported by an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate indicating attacking intent. Desenzano Calvina's lower goal output and higher goals conceded reduce their chances. The price offers positive value with a 22.7% edge, making Renate a solid pick without price caution. Limited data quality is not a concern here, reinforcing in the model's assessment.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
Renate's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the favored side to secure victory. Their ability to score consistently and maintain a tighter defense compared to Desenzano Calvina underpins this pick. Desenzano Calvina's struggles in front of goal and defensive lapses suggest Renate can capitalize and claim the three points.
Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome
“Renate's superior goal-scoring and defensive balance, combined with home support, create a compelling case for their victory. Desenzano Calvina's lack of offensive threat and defensive fragility further tilt the scales in Renate's favor.”
Key Data Signals
Renate to Win evidence
Renate holds a 74% to win, significantly above the implied market chance of 51.3%.
Renate averages 2.2 goals per game recently, nearly triple Desenzano Calvina's 0.8 goals per game.
Desenzano Calvina concedes 1.6 goals per game, higher than Renate's 1.2, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
Renate's recent form yields 8 points versus Desenzano Calvina's 3, showing momentum advantage.
What To Watch In The Data
Renate to Win notes
- Recent trends show Renate's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, with an 80% rate over recent games.
- This suggests a high-tempo, attacking style that can break down defenses.
- Desenzano Calvina's lower scoring rate and defensive vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of a goal-rich encounter favoring Renate.
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Renate
Desenzano Calvina
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Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
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