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Scunthorpe crestScunthorpe
v
Worthing crestWorthing

National League | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Scunthorpe v Worthing Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 21:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League clash features Scunthorpe, struggling near the bottom of the table with just 10 points, hosting Worthing, who sit comfortably in sixth place with 28 points. Scunthorpe's recent offensive struggles contrast with Worthing's more potent attack, suggesting an open game. Both teams have shown tendencies for high-scoring matches, with Scunthorpe involved in games exceeding 2.5 goals 80% of the time and Worthing at 100%. The fixture carries significance for Scunthorpe to arrest their poor form, while Worthing aim to maintain their strong position, setting the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Scunthorpe's matches have exceeded 2.5 goals in 80% of recent games.
  • Worthing's games have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their recent outings.
  • Scunthorpe concedes an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Worthing scores 2.4 goals per game, reflecting strong attacking capability.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 58% chance against an implied market chance of 47.6%, offering a 10.4% . Both teams' recent form supports a high-scoring game: Scunthorpe's defensive frailty and Worthing's attacking efficiency create conditions ripe for multiple goals. The level at 69% reflects solid backing from statistical trends and team profiles. No data limitations or price warnings affect this pick, making it a strong candidate for standard staking.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Positive
Value Edge58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level69%
Strong positive
Scunthorpe Over 2.5 Rate80%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game given Worthing's strong offensive record and Scunthorpe's defensive struggles. Worthing's ability to score consistently combined with Scunthorpe's tendency to concede heavily suggests Over 3.5 Goals is a logical selection. The data supports a match where goals are likely to flow, making this a compelling betting angle.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Worthing's potent attack against Scunthorpe's leaky defense sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The statistical trends strongly favor Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Scunthorpe's matches have exceeded 2.5 goals in 80% of recent games.

Worthing's games have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their recent outings.

Scunthorpe concedes an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Worthing scores 2.4 goals per game, reflecting strong attacking capability.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have consistently featured in games with more than 2.5 goals, with Worthing at a perfect 100% rate.
  • This trend indicates a fast tempo and open play style, increasing the likelihood of multiple goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Scunthorpe0.8
Avg goals scored
Worthing2.4
Scunthorpe2.8
Avg goals conceded
Worthing1.6
Scunthorpe60%
BTTS rate
Worthing60%
Scunthorpe80%
Over 2.5 goals
Worthing100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Both teams have shown a strong propensity for high-scoring matches, with Scunthorpe's games exceeding 2.5 goals 80% of the time and Worthing's at 100%. Both teams to score rates at 60% suggest that goals will come from both sides, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich game.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 69% · edge +8.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Worthing Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Worthing to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Scunthorpe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
Scunthorpe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+10.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Scunthorpe and 100% for Worthing, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Scunthorpe

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 8L
31 Oct 2026A Boston United1-2
27 Oct 2026A Tamworth1-4
24 Oct 2026H Woking2-3
10 Oct 2026A AFC Fylde0-2
29 Sep 2026A Barrow0-3

Worthing

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
31 Oct 2026H Sutton Utd0-3
27 Oct 2026H Southend3-3
24 Oct 2026A Kidderminster Harriers2-1
10 Oct 2026H Solihull Moors5-0
03 Oct 2026A Gateshead2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Worthing Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Worthing to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Scunthorpe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Scunthorpe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form data highlights Worthing's strong offensive output, averaging 2.4 goals per game and maintaining a 100% over 2.5 goals rate. Scunthorpe's form is weaker, with only 0.8 goals scored per game and a high concession rate, supporting the expectation of a high-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Scunthorpe Over 2.5
100%Worthing Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have consistently featured in games with more than 2.5 goals, with Worthing at a perfect 100% rate. This trend indicates a fast tempo and open play style, increasing the likelihood of multiple goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.

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