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Foggia crestFoggia

Serie C - Girone C | Sat 14 Nov, 16:30

Bari v Foggia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bari hosts Foggia in a Serie C - Girone C clash where defensive solidity and tactical caution are likely to dominate. Bari, sitting second in the table, have conceded just 0.6 goals per game recently and have kept clean sheets in their last outings. Foggia, positioned 16th, have struggled defensively but also tend to play cautiously away, with a higher rate of over 2.5 goals games contrasting with Bari's tight defense. This matchup suggests a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances, increasing the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter under 2.5 goals.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Bari has conceded only 0.6 goals per game recently, showing strong defensive form.
  • Foggia’s recent matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, but Bari’s defense limits scoring chances.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating some goal threat but balanced by defensive caution.
  • Bari ranks 2nd in the league with 23 points, reflecting consistent form and control.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 2.14, supporting a moderately low scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, higher than the implied 59.9% chance from , indicating positive value. Bari’s strong defensive record and recent clean sheets suggest limited goal-scoring opportunities, while Foggia’s attacking volatility is tempered by away struggles. The balanced BTTS rates and moderate head-to-head goals average reinforce the likelihood of a low-scoring game. No data limitations or price warnings affect this pick, making it a solid choice based on defensive control and tactical caution.

Model Probability66% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+6.1 pts)
Strong positive
Bari Defensive Form0.6 goals conceded per game recently
Strong positive
Foggia Over 2.5 Rate60% but tempered by away form
Neutral
Head-to-Head Goals Average2.14 goals per match
Positive
BTTS Rate Both Teams60% each, balanced goal threat
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given Bari’s defensive discipline and recent clean sheets, combined with Foggia’s inconsistent attacking output away from home. The tactical nature of Serie C matches and the importance of points for Bari suggest a cautious game with limited goals. The data supports a low-scoring outcome, making this bet a well-founded choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive control and tactical match context

“Bari’s defensive resilience and Foggia’s away inconsistencies set the stage for a tight, low-scoring encounter. Expect tactical caution to prevail, limiting clear chances and favoring an Under 2.5 Goals outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Bari has conceded only 0.6 goals per game recently, showing strong defensive form.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating some goal threat but balanced by defensive caution.

Bari ranks 2nd in the league with 23 points, reflecting consistent form and control.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last seven head-to-head matches average 2.14 goals, indicating moderate scoring levels.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a tempo that favors defensive organization and limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bari1
Avg goals scored
Foggia1
Bari0.6
Avg goals conceded
Foggia1.8
Bari60%
BTTS rate
Foggia60%
Bari0%
Over 2.5 goals
Foggia60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, showing some goal threat exists, but Bari’s recent defensive record with only 0.6 goals conceded per game points to controlled scoring. Foggia’s higher over 2.5 goals rate is offset by away form challenges, leading to an expectation of limited goals and a likely BTTS No scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Bari to WinBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Foggia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Foggia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+6.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Bari and 60% for Foggia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bari

DDDDW
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
09 Nov 2026A AZ Picerno1-1
31 Oct 2026H Scafatese1-1
23 Oct 2026A Casertana1-1
18 Oct 2026H Crotone0-0
10 Oct 2026H Giugliano2-0

Foggia

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
09 Nov 2026H Barletta0-1
02 Nov 2026A Casarano2-2
25 Oct 2026H Cavese1-0
19 Oct 2026A Giugliano1-3
11 Oct 2026H Potenza1-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 86% · edge +0.4 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Load more odds for this section
Bari to WinBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Foggia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Foggia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Bari’s recent form shows strong defensive output with only 0.6 goals conceded per game and no over 2.5 goals matches, reflecting tight control. Foggia’s form is more variable, with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate but conceding 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that Bari could exploit to keep the score low.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Bari Over 2.5
60%Foggia Over 2.5
2.14H2H avg goals
The last seven head-to-head matches average 2.14 goals, indicating moderate scoring levels. This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a tempo that favors defensive organization and limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection for this fixture.

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