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AFC Wimbledon crestAFC Wimbledon
v
Blackpool crestBlackpool

League One | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 16:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AFC Wimbledon host Blackpool in a crucial League One clash where both teams seek to escape difficult runs. Wimbledon are enduring a ten-match winless streak, struggling defensively and scoring just three goals in six home games, heavily reliant on Jayden Stockley for attacking threat. Blackpool arrive unbeaten in three matches, showing signs of recovery despite defensive lapses, and aim to capitalize on Wimbledon's fragility. Both sides have conceded regularly, setting the stage for a competitive encounter with goals likely at both ends, while Blackpool's momentum suggests they can edge this contest.

BT4Y best bet

Blackpool to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Wimbledon have failed to win in their last ten matches, conceding in six consecutive league games.
  • Blackpool are unbeaten in their last three matches across all competitions, showing improved form.
  • Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, making goals from both sides probable.
  • Jayden Stockley leads Wimbledon with six league goals, providing a focal point in attack.
  • Blackpool's recent matches include multiple goals scored, supporting an away win with BTTS.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Blackpool to Win & Both Teams to Score highly with a 38.1% chance, well above the implied 22.2% probability, indicating strong value. Blackpool's improving form contrasts with Wimbledon's prolonged slump and defensive frailty, while both teams' tendency to concede supports the BTTS element. The combination reflects Blackpool's momentum and Wimbledon's inability to keep clean sheets, making this a coherent and data-backed selection. No price warnings apply, and the model is moderate at 49%.

Model Chance vs Implied Probability30.2% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+8 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormBlackpool unbeaten in 3, Wimbledon winless in 10
Strong positive
Defensive RecordsBoth teams concede regularly
Positive
Key Player ImpactStockley's 6 goals for Wimbledon
Positive
Price Sensitivity30.2% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+8 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Blackpool's recent unbeaten streak and growing momentum provide a tactical edge over a Wimbledon side struggling to defend leads and score consistently at home. The data supports an away victory with goals from both teams, as Wimbledon's defensive lapses and reliance on Stockley for goals make a clean sheet unlikely. Blackpool's attacking improvements and resilience in recent matches underpin this confident prediction.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based analysis

“Blackpool's ability to score late and overturn deficits exploits Wimbledon's defensive frailty, making a narrow away win with goals at both ends a compelling outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Blackpool to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Wimbledon have failed to win in their last ten matches, conceding in six consecutive league games.

Blackpool are unbeaten in their last three matches across all competitions, showing improved form.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, making goals from both sides probable.

Jayden Stockley leads Wimbledon with six league goals, providing a focal point in attack.

What To Watch In The Data

Blackpool to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches average 1.7 goals per game, a relatively low-scoring trend.
  • However, recent form data indicates a higher likelihood of Over 2.5 goals due to Wimbledon's defensive lapses and Blackpool's improved attacking output.
  • The trend panel suggests a match with open play and goal-scoring chances, fitting the Over 2.5 goals narrative.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AFC Wimbledon0.6
Avg goals scored
Blackpool0.8
AFC Wimbledon2.6
Avg goals conceded
Blackpool1.6
AFC Wimbledon60%
BTTS rate
Blackpool40%
AFC Wimbledon80%
Over 2.5 goals
Blackpool20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown a tendency to concede regularly, with Wimbledon allowing goals in six consecutive league matches and Blackpool conceding 19 goals in their last 10 matches. Wimbledon's low scoring rate is offset by Stockley's goal threat, while Blackpool's recent matches have featured multiple goals, supporting a BTTS outcome.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBlackpool Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Blackpool to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 30.2% for Blackpool to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 22.2% implied by the current price (+8 pts). Blackpool need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show AFC Wimbledon on 1 and Blackpool on 4. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AFC Wimbledon

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
31 Oct 2026A Stockport County1-2
24 Oct 2026H Wycombe1-1
20 Oct 2026H Mansfield Town0-3
17 Oct 2026A Sheffield Wednesday0-5
10 Oct 2026A Plymouth1-2

Blackpool

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
01 Nov 2026A Sheffield Wednesday1-1
24 Oct 2026H Mansfield Town1-4
20 Oct 2026H Milton Keynes Dons2-0
17 Oct 2026A Leyton Orient0-2
10 Oct 2026A Cambridge United0-1
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Blackpool Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Blackpool to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Wimbledon's form is poor, with just one point from their last seven league matches and an average of 0.6 goals scored against 2.6 conceded per game, reflecting defensive frailty and scoring struggles. Blackpool's recent unbeaten run of three matches, scoring 0.8 goals and conceding 1.6 on average, shows improved resilience and attacking effectiveness, underpinning the away win and BTTS selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%AFC Wimbledon Over 2.5
20%Blackpool Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches average 1.7 goals per game, a relatively low-scoring trend. However, recent form data indicates a higher likelihood of Over 2.5 goals due to Wimbledon's defensive lapses and Blackpool's improved attacking output. The trend panel suggests a match with open play and goal-scoring chances, fitting the Over 2.5 goals narrative.

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