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AFC Hornchurch crestAFC Hornchurch
v
Tamworth crestTamworth

National League | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

AFC Hornchurch v Tamworth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 21:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League fixture features AFC Hornchurch hosting Tamworth, with both sides seeking vital points to improve their league standing. AFC Hornchurch currently sits 15th with 21 points, while Tamworth is 20th with 17 points, making this a crucial match for Tamworth to climb out of the relegation zone. Recent form data shows Tamworth has been more effective, securing 9 points compared to Hornchurch's 3 in their last five matches. Tamworth's defensive solidity, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, contrasts with Hornchurch's 2 goals conceded per match, suggesting a tactical edge for the visitors in this contest.

BT4Y best bet

Tamworth to Win

  • Tamworth has a 70% to win, with at 2.7 offering positive value.
  • Tamworth's recent form is stronger, earning 9 points in the last five games versus Hornchurch's 3.
  • Hornchurch concedes twice as many goals per game as Tamworth, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Tamworth ranks lower but shows better defensive stats, conceding only 0.8 goals per game.
  • Hornchurch's high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Tamworth's more conservative 40%, suggesting a tactical defensive approach by Tamworth.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Tamworth to win due to their superior recent form and defensive record. Despite being lower in the standings, Tamworth concedes fewer goals (0.8 per game) compared to AFC Hornchurch's 2, indicating better defensive organization. The positive of 33% at of 2.7 reflects the market underestimating Tamworth's chances. Hornchurch's high rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals suggests they are vulnerable at the back, which Tamworth can exploit by maintaining defensive discipline and counter-attacking effectively. No data limitations affect this analysis.

Recent form pointsTamworth 9 vs Hornchurch 3
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gameTamworth 0.8 vs Hornchurch 2
Strong positive
Model chance vs implied chance52% model chance vs 37% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Over 2.5 goals rateHornchurch 80%, Tamworth 40%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Tamworth's recent defensive solidity and better form make them a strong contender for victory despite their lower league position. Their ability to limit goals conceded contrasts with Hornchurch's defensive struggles, suggesting Tamworth can capitalize on this advantage tactically and secure the win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tamworth's defensive strength and form

“Tamworth's disciplined defensive approach and recent momentum provide a compelling case for their win, especially against a Hornchurch side prone to conceding goals. This tactical edge combined with positive form underpins the in their victory.”

Key Data Signals

Tamworth to Win evidence

Tamworth has a 70% to win, with at 2.7 offering positive value.

Tamworth's recent form is stronger, earning 9 points in the last five games versus Hornchurch's 3.

Hornchurch concedes twice as many goals per game as Tamworth, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Tamworth ranks lower but shows better defensive stats, conceding only 0.8 goals per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Tamworth to Win notes

  • Over the recent sample, Hornchurch's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals (80%), indicating open, high-tempo games with defensive gaps.
  • Tamworth's lower rate (40%) suggests a more cautious tempo.
  • This trend implies the match could see fluctuating momentum, with Tamworth aiming to contain Hornchurch's attacking threats to keep the scoreline manageable.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AFC Hornchurch1
Avg goals scored
Tamworth1.6
AFC Hornchurch2
Avg goals conceded
Tamworth0.8
AFC Hornchurch60%
BTTS rate
Tamworth40%
AFC Hornchurch80%
Over 2.5 goals
Tamworth40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 83% vs implied 83% · edge -0.3 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Hornchurch's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, reflecting their open defensive style, while Tamworth's games reach this threshold only 40% of the time. Both teams have a 40-60% BTTS rate, indicating moderate likelihood of both scoring. This contrast suggests Tamworth may focus on defensive solidity to limit Hornchurch's attacking threats.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickTamworth to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 52% for Tamworth to Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Tamworth have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 3 for AFC Hornchurch.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AFC Hornchurch

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
30 Oct 2026A AFC Fylde1-3
27 Oct 2026H Yeovil Town1-2
24 Oct 2026A Hartlepool1-2
10 Oct 2026H Eastleigh2-0
03 Oct 2026A Harrogate Town0-3

Tamworth

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
31 Oct 2026H Woking0-1
27 Oct 2026H Scunthorpe4-1
10 Oct 2026H Barrow1-2
03 Oct 2026A Hartlepool1-0
30 Sep 2026H Sutton Utd2-0
Market aligned with main pickTamworth to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Tamworth's recent form is markedly better, with 9 points gained in the last five matches compared to Hornchurch's 3. This momentum reflects improved performances and , which could influence the match outcome by enabling Tamworth to control key phases and capitalize on Hornchurch's defensive weaknesses.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%AFC Hornchurch Over 2.5
40%Tamworth Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent sample, Hornchurch's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals (80%), indicating open, high-tempo games with defensive gaps. Tamworth's lower rate (40%) suggests a more cautious tempo. This trend implies the match could see fluctuating momentum, with Tamworth aiming to contain Hornchurch's attacking threats to keep the scoreline manageable.

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