Football Stats Hub

Airdrie United crestAirdrie United
v
Queen of the South crestQueen of the South

League One | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Airdrie United v Queen of the South Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Airdrie United and Queen of the South meet in a League One clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Airdrie United, positioned fifth, have shown a strong tendency for high-scoring games, with 80% of their recent matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Queen of the South, sitting eighth, have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, which aligns with their lower scoring output but suggests open play. Both teams' recent form and league positions indicate a fixture likely to produce multiple goals, with tactical openness and defensive lapses key factors.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Airdrie United have an 80% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals recently.
  • Queen of the South concede an average of 2.2 goals per game this season.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.75 goals per match over eight games.
  • Both teams have shown vulnerability at the back, encouraging attacking opportunities.
  • Model projects a 65.4% chance for over 2.5 goals, with positive value at 1.62 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 65.4% probability for over 2.5 goals, supported by Airdrie United's high-scoring matches and Queen of the South's defensive frailties. The average of 3.75 goals in recent head-to-heads reinforces the likelihood of multiple goals. Both sides' attacking tendencies combined with defensive openness create a fertile environment for goals, making the over 2.5 goals market a compelling choice with a positive of 3.7%.

Airdrie United Over 2.5 Rate80% recent matches
Strong positive
Queen of the South Goals Against2.2 average per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.75 goals per match
Strong positive
Model Probability65.4% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+3.7 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge65.4% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+3.7 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams prone to conceding, particularly Queen of the South, whose defensive record suggests vulnerability. Airdrie United's attacking form and the high average goals in their encounters point towards a lively match with multiple scoring opportunities, making over 2.5 goals a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“This fixture's attacking dynamics and defensive lapses set the stage for a goal-rich encounter. The historical goal averages and current form underline the likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals, making this market a strong tactical call.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Airdrie United have an 80% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals recently.

Queen of the South concede an average of 2.2 goals per game this season.

Head-to-head meetings average 3.75 goals per match over eight games.

Both teams have shown vulnerability at the back, encouraging attacking opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last eight head-to-head meetings average 3.75 goals per game, a strong indicator of open and high-scoring encounters.
  • This recent trend over a meaningful sample size supports the over 2.5 goals market, suggesting a continuation of attacking control and defensive lapses in this matchup.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Airdrie United1.2
Avg goals scored
Queen of the South0.8
Airdrie United2.2
Avg goals conceded
Queen of the South2.2
Airdrie United60%
BTTS rate
Queen of the South40%
Airdrie United80%
Over 2.5 goals
Queen of the South40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 62% · edge +3.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown tendencies towards matches with multiple goals, with Airdrie United's 80% over 2.5 rate and Queen of the South's defensive concessions supporting the likelihood of goals from both sides. While Queen of the South's BTTS rate is lower, the overall goal environment favors an over 2.5 outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 62% · edge +3.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Queen of the South Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Queen of the South to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Airdrie United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The 65.4% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+3.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Airdrie United and 40% for Queen of the South, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more League One analysisplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Airdrie United

WLLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
07 Nov 2026A Alloa Athletic3-2
31 Oct 2026H Cove Rangers0-1
24 Oct 2026A Ross County0-4
17 Oct 2026H Hamilton Academical1-2
10 Oct 2026A East Kilbride2-2

Queen of the South

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
07 Nov 2026H East Kilbride1-2
31 Oct 2026A East Fife0-2
24 Oct 2026A Alloa Athletic1-0
17 Oct 2026H Ross County1-7
10 Oct 2026A Peterhead1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Queen of the South Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Queen of the South to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Airdrie United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Airdrie United to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Recent form shows Airdrie United scoring 1.2 goals per game but conceding 2.2, indicating open matches with goal opportunities. Queen of the South's similar defensive concession rate but lower scoring suggests matches with goals but potential defensive lapses, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals trend in their fixtures.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Airdrie United Over 2.5
40%Queen of the South Over 2.5
3.75H2H avg goals
The last eight head-to-head meetings average 3.75 goals per game, a strong indicator of open and high-scoring encounters. This recent trend over a meaningful sample size supports the over 2.5 goals market, suggesting a continuation of attacking control and defensive lapses in this matchup.

Loading deeper match data…