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Colchester crestColchester
v
Gillingham crestGillingham

League Two | Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Colchester v Gillingham Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Two clash features Colchester, struggling near the relegation zone with just 12 points, against a more confident Gillingham side sitting 8th with 20 points. Gillingham's recent form shows greater attacking output and resilience despite conceding goals, while Colchester have struggled to score and pick up points. The match carries importance for Gillingham to maintain playoff hopes and for Colchester to climb away from danger. Tactical approaches suggest Gillingham will look to leverage their attacking strengths and goal threat to secure a vital away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Gillingham to Win

  • Gillingham ranks 8th with 20 points, Colchester 23rd with 12 points.
  • Gillingham averages 1.8 goals per game, Colchester only 0.4.
  • Gillingham has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Colchester just 20%.
  • Colchester has scored only 2 points in last five matches, Gillingham 7 points.
  • Gillingham's Ronan Hale has 6 goals and 1.21 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Gillingham to win with a 69.6% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, higher scoring rate, and better league standing. Gillingham's attacking players, especially Ronan Hale and S. Kendall, contribute significantly to their goal threat, while Colchester's low scoring and poor recent results weaken their case. The of 3.2 offer positive value given the implied chance of 31.3%, making this a compelling selection based on both data and football context.

Model Win Probability69.6%
Strong positive
Gillingham Scoring Rate1.8 goals per game
Strong positive
Colchester Scoring Rate0.4 goals per game
Negative
Recent Form Points (Last 5)Gillingham 7, Colchester 2
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Odds46.3% model chance vs 31.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gillingham's superior offensive capabilities and recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances, led by key players like Ronan Hale, contrasts with Colchester's struggles to score and accumulate points, supporting a confident away win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“Gillingham's attacking efficiency and momentum give them a clear edge over Colchester, whose low scoring and form issues present a significant challenge in this match.”

Key Data Signals

Gillingham to Win evidence

Gillingham ranks 8th with 20 points, Colchester 23rd with 12 points.

Gillingham averages 1.8 goals per game, Colchester only 0.4.

Gillingham has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Colchester just 20%.

Colchester has scored only 2 points in last five matches, Gillingham 7 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Gillingham to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Gillingham has an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring games.
  • Colchester's 20% rate is much lower, but the combined trend suggests this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and a lively tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Colchester0.4
Avg goals scored
Gillingham1.8
Colchester1.4
Avg goals conceded
Gillingham2
Colchester40%
BTTS rate
Gillingham100%
Colchester20%
Over 2.5 goals
Gillingham80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Gillingham's high average goals per game (1.8) and 100% BTTS rate suggest an open game with scoring from both sides likely. Colchester's low scoring rate and 40% BTTS rate temper this, but the attacking threat from Gillingham points to a match with goals and both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 46.3% for Gillingham to Win sits against roughly 31.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Gillingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Colchester.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Colchester

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 5D 5L
31 Oct 2026H Walsall1-3
24 Oct 2026A Northampton0-2
20 Oct 2026A Chesterfield1-1
17 Oct 2026H Exeter City0-0
10 Oct 2026A Newport County0-1

Gillingham

WLDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
31 Oct 2026A Shrewsbury2-1
24 Oct 2026H Grimsby1-4
20 Oct 2026H Port Vale1-1
17 Oct 2026A Accrington ST1-3
10 Oct 2026A Rotherham4-1
Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Recent form heavily favors Gillingham, who have collected 7 points in their last five matches compared to Colchester's 2 points. Gillingham's ability to score and gain results contrasts with Colchester's struggles, reinforcing the likelihood of an away win based on momentum and .
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Colchester Over 2.5
80%Gillingham Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Gillingham has an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring games. Colchester's 20% rate is much lower, but the combined trend suggests this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and a lively tempo.

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