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Valladolid crestValladolid
v
Castellón crestCastellón

Segunda División | Sat 14 Nov, 13:00

Valladolid v Castellón Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Valladolid hosts Castellón in a Segunda División clash where goal-scoring potential is high. Valladolid has been prolific offensively, averaging 2.8 goals per game recently and maintaining a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Castellón, while more conservative, still contributes with 1.8 goals per game and a solid defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per match. The tactical setup suggests an open game with Valladolid's attacking intent meeting Castellón's disciplined defense, creating conditions ripe for multiple goals. Both teams have shown willingness to engage offensively, setting the stage for a lively encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Valladolid averages 2.8 goals per game with 100% Over 2.5 rate recently.
  • Castellón scores 1.8 goals per match and concedes just 0.6, indicating solid defense.
  • Valladolid averages 16.2 shots and 7.2 shots on target per game, showing attacking volume.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, supporting a goal-rich fixture.
  • Both teams have attacking players with strong shot and key pass profiles enhancing scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 63.8% chance, supported by Valladolid's perfect recent Over 2.5 record and high shot volume. Castellón's decent scoring and strong defense suggest goals but also potential for counterattacks. The combined attacking metrics and historical averages indicate a match likely to produce multiple goals. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation based on solid attacking and defensive data from both sides.

Valladolid Over 2.5 Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Valladolid Shots per Game16.2 average shots
Strong positive
Castellón Goals Conceded0.6 per game
Neutral
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.5 goals in 2 matches
Positive
Model Probability63.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+5 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Valladolid's high offensive output meets Castellón's solid defense. Valladolid's recent form and shot volume suggest multiple goals, while Castellón's ability to score and defend adds balance. This match is well poised for Over 2.5 Goals, combining tactical openness with statistical backing.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking pressure and defensive balance

“Valladolid's relentless attacking pressure combined with Castellón's disciplined defense creates a dynamic where goals are likely, especially given Valladolid's high shot volume and recent scoring consistency.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Valladolid averages 2.8 goals per game with 100% Over 2.5 rate recently.

Castellón scores 1.8 goals per match and concedes just 0.6, indicating solid defense.

Valladolid averages 16.2 shots and 7.2 shots on target per game, showing attacking volume.

Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, supporting a goal-rich fixture.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5, aligning closely with the Over 2.5 Goals market.
  • Valladolid's recent matches show a 100% Over 2.5 rate, while Castellón's is 40%.
  • This trend panel over recent fixtures and direct encounters indicates a tempo and attacking openness conducive to multiple goals, reinforcing the Over 2.5 selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Valladolid2.8
Avg goals scored
Castellón1.8
Valladolid1.8
Avg goals conceded
Castellón0.6
Valladolid80%
BTTS rate
Castellón40%
Valladolid100%
Over 2.5 goals
Castellón40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 59% · edge +5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 82%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Valladolid's recent matches show a strong tendency for both teams to score and high goal totals, with an 80% BTTS rate and 100% Over 2.5 rate. Castellón's lower BTTS rate (40%) and strong defense suggest they may limit goals conceded, but their own scoring ability supports multiple goals. The combination points to a match with several goals but potentially fewer from Castellón.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 59% · edge +5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Valladolid to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Valladolid Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Castellón Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
The 63.8% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Valladolid and 40% for Castellón, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Valladolid

WWLLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
08 Nov 2026A Sporting Gijon2-1
02 Nov 2026H Leganes4-3
23 Oct 2026A Granada CF1-2
18 Oct 2026H Eldense2-3
12 Oct 2026H Albacete5-0

Castellón

DWWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
01 Nov 2026A Burgos1-1
25 Oct 2026H Sporting Gijon4-0
17 Oct 2026A Las Palmas3-0
11 Oct 2026A FC Andorra0-1
04 Oct 2026H AD Ceuta FC1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Valladolid to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Valladolid Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Castellón Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Castellón to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Valladolid's recent form is characterized by high-scoring games, averaging 2.8 goals and consistently surpassing 2.5 goals in all recent matches. Castellón's form is more balanced, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding only 0.6 per game, which tempers the total goals expectation but still supports a lively match. The form data aligns with an Over 2.5 Goals outcome, driven by Valladolid's offensive consistency.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Valladolid Over 2.5
40%Castellón Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5, aligning closely with the Over 2.5 Goals market. Valladolid's recent matches show a 100% Over 2.5 rate, while Castellón's is 40%. This trend panel over recent fixtures and direct encounters indicates a tempo and attacking openness conducive to multiple goals, reinforcing the Over 2.5 selection.

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