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Switzerland crestSwitzerland
v
Slovenia crestSlovenia

UEFA Nations League | Sat 03 Oct, 19:45

Switzerland v Slovenia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 04:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Switzerland face Slovenia in UEFA Nations League on Sat 03 Oct, 19:45. Switzerland vs Slovenia: Swiss defensive control faces its sternest group test. Both teams have shown strong defensive form with Switzerland keeping four clean sheets in five matches and Slovenia failing to score in half their recent away games.

BT4Y best bet

To win, Switzerland must score exactly two goals and Slovenia must score exactly zero

  • At 8/15, To win, Switzerland must score exactly two goals and Slovenia must score exactly zero implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score NO.
  • Switzerland show a 0% BTTS rate and Slovenia show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Switzerland average 3 goals scored and Slovenia average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for To win, Switzerland must score exactly two goals and Slovenia must score exactly zero sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. Switzerland show a 0% BTTS rate and Slovenia show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score NO.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Neutral
Switzerland show a 0% BTTS rate and Slovenia show a.Visible data support
Positive
Switzerland average 3 goals scored and Slovenia average 1, so.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Both Teams To Score NO.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: BTTS No is the preferred angle because switzerland’s previous shutouts against Slovenia and the visitors’ attacking absence make a clean sheet for at least one side likely, supporting the BTTS NO selection. Switzerland show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Slovenia show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. His goal at Hampden followed earlier efforts from Ricardo Rodriguez and Nico Elvedi, although the context matters: Scotland played more than 80 minutes with 10 men.

Main risk

His goal at Hampden followed earlier efforts from Ricardo Rodriguez and Nico Elvedi, although the context matters: Scotland played more than 80 minutes with 10 men.

Key Data Signals

To win, Switzerland must score exactly two goals and Slovenia must score exactly zero evidence

Switzerland’s previous shutouts against Slovenia and the visitors’ attacking absence make a clean sheet for at least one.

Switzerland show a 0% BTTS rate and Slovenia show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Switzerland average 3 goals scored and Slovenia average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

To win, Switzerland must score exactly two goals and Slovenia must score exactly zero notes

  • Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting BTTS No.
  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Switzerland3
Avg goals scored
Slovenia1
Switzerland0
Avg goals conceded
Slovenia0
Switzerland0%
BTTS rate
Slovenia0%
Switzerland100%
Over 2.5 goals
Slovenia0%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 65% · edge +2.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: Switzerland concede 0 on average and Slovenia score 1, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSwitzerland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 78% · edge -9.6 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Switzerland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Switzerland to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Switzerland

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
29 Sep 2026A Scotland3-0
26 Sep 2026A FYR Macedonia3-0

Slovenia

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Sep 2026H FYR Macedonia2-0
26 Sep 2026H Scotland0-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 86% vs implied 94% · edge -8.3 pts
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
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Switzerland to WinBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Switzerland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Switzerland Over 2.5
0%Slovenia Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Switzerland sit at 100% and Slovenia sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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