Football Stats Hub

Criciuma crestCriciuma
v
Novorizontino crestNovorizontino

Serie B | Sat 14 Nov, 19:30

Criciuma v Novorizontino Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Novorizontino, the league leaders with 70 points, visiting Criciuma, who sit fourth with 62 points. Novorizontino have shown strong recent form, averaging 2.4 goals per game and boasting an 80% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals. Criciuma, by contrast, have struggled offensively with just 1 goal in their last five matches and a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%. Novorizontino's attacking momentum and league position set the stage for a competitive encounter with clear stakes for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Novorizontino to Win

  • Novorizontino leads Serie B with 70 points, Criciuma fourth with 62 points
  • Novorizontino averages 2.4 goals per game, Criciuma only 1 goal in last five matches
  • Novorizontino’s over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, Criciuma’s is 20%
  • Novorizontino has a strong recent form with 13 points from last five games
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 1.78 over nine meetings

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Novorizontino to win with a 66.4% chance, reflecting their superior league position, recent scoring form, and attacking efficiency. Novorizontino’s high over 2.5 goals rate and solid shot accuracy underline their offensive threat. Criciuma’s low scoring and recent struggles further tilt the balance. The at 2.6 offer good value given the implied chance is only 38.5%, making this a strong data-backed selection without price warnings or data limitations.

Model Win Probability66.4%
Strong positive
Novorizontino Goals per Game2.4
Strong positive
Criciuma Goals per Game1.0
Negative
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Novorizontino80%
Strong positive
Recent Points Novorizontino13
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Novorizontino’s attacking prowess and league leadership make them the clear choice to win this fixture. Their recent form and goal-scoring consistency contrast with Criciuma’s offensive struggles, suggesting Novorizontino can control the game tactically and secure the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Novorizontino attacking strength

“Novorizontino’s dynamic midfield and forward line have consistently created high-quality chances, making them the most likely side to break down Criciuma’s defense and claim victory.”

Key Data Signals

Novorizontino to Win evidence

Novorizontino leads Serie B with 70 points, Criciuma fourth with 62 points

Novorizontino averages 2.4 goals per game, Criciuma only 1 goal in last five matches

Novorizontino’s over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, Criciuma’s is 20%

Novorizontino has a strong recent form with 13 points from last five games

What To Watch In The Data

Novorizontino to Win notes

  • The last nine head-to-head meetings average 1.78 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, Novorizontino’s recent matches show a higher tempo and goal frequency, suggesting an increased likelihood of over 2.5 goals driven by their attacking style and Criciuma’s vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Criciuma1
Avg goals scored
Novorizontino2.4
Criciuma0.6
Avg goals conceded
Novorizontino1
Criciuma20%
BTTS rate
Novorizontino80%
Criciuma20%
Over 2.5 goals
Novorizontino80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Novorizontino’s matches frequently feature multiple goals, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and a high shots-on-target average of 5.6 per game. Criciuma’s low scoring and BTTS rate of 20% suggest they are less likely to contribute goals, indicating a probable Novorizontino-dominant scoring pattern.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
Novorizontino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 53.5% for Novorizontino to Win sits against roughly 38.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 9 for Criciuma.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Criciuma

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
07 Nov 2026A Vila Nova0-1
30 Oct 2026H Ponte Preta2-0
24 Oct 2026A Sport Recife1-2
18 Oct 2026A São Bernardo1-0
12 Oct 2026H America Mineiro1-0

Novorizontino

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
07 Nov 2026H Fortaleza EC2-1
01 Nov 2026H Operario-PR2-1
24 Oct 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-0
18 Oct 2026A Vila Nova2-2
12 Oct 2026H Ponte Preta5-1
Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Novorizontino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Novorizontino’s recent form is strong with 13 points from their last five matches and a high goal output, contrasting with Criciuma’s 9 points and just one goal scored in the same period. This momentum gap favors Novorizontino’s and tactical execution heading into the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Criciuma Over 2.5
80%Novorizontino Over 2.5
1.78H2H avg goals
The last nine head-to-head meetings average 1.78 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring. However, Novorizontino’s recent matches show a higher tempo and goal frequency, suggesting an increased likelihood of over 2.5 goals driven by their attacking style and Criciuma’s vulnerabilities.

Loading deeper match data…