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Basque Country crestBasque Country
v
Venezuela crestVenezuela

Friendlies | Sat 14 Nov, 19:00

Basque Country v Venezuela Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This friendly match features Venezuela visiting the Basque Country, with Venezuela showing more consistent recent form and a clearer attacking threat. Venezuela's squad includes key attackers like G. Castillo, who have demonstrated goal-scoring and shot-creating abilities. The Basque Country's data is limited, making it harder to assess their defensive solidity, but Venezuela's momentum and offensive patterns suggest they can capitalize on this advantage in an open friendly setting. The match offers Venezuela a chance to build and test attacking options against a less familiar opponent.

BT4Y best bet

Venezuela to Win

  • Venezuela has earned 5 points recently with a solid defensive record conceding 0.8 goals per game.
  • Venezuela averages 7.5 shots and 2.75 shots on target per match, indicating attacking intent.
  • Key players like G. Castillo show strong shot and goal threat metrics.
  • Basque Country data is limited, increasing uncertainty but Venezuela's form and player quality stand out.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Venezuela to win with a 64% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking metrics. Venezuela's average of 7.5 shots and 2.75 shots on target per game, combined with contributions from key players like G. Castillo, supports their offensive edge. The Basque Country's limited data and unknown defensive profile add uncertainty but lean towards Venezuela's advantage. The current of 5.5 offer a strong of 45.8%, making Venezuela an attractive pick despite the friendly nature of the fixture.

Model Win Probability64%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance20.5% model chance vs 18.2% implied (+2.3 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge20.5% model chance vs 18.2% implied (+2.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormVenezuela unbeaten with 5 points
Positive
Data QualityLimited Basque Country data
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Venezuela's recent form and attacking capabilities make them the favored side in this friendly. Their ability to generate shots and key passes, led by players like G. Castillo, provides a tactical edge. The Basque Country's limited data and less established team cohesion increase Venezuela's chances of securing a win in this encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Venezuela's attacking and form advantage

“Venezuela's attacking depth and recent momentum position them well to exploit the Basque Country's limited defensive data and secure a victory in this friendly.”

Key Data Signals

Venezuela to Win evidence

Venezuela has earned 5 points recently with a solid defensive record conceding 0.8 goals per game.

Venezuela averages 7.5 shots and 2.75 shots on target per match, indicating attacking intent.

Key players like G. Castillo show strong shot and goal threat metrics.

Basque Country data is limited, increasing uncertainty but Venezuela's form and player quality stand out.

What To Watch In The Data

Venezuela to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Venezuela has recorded a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals games, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • This trend suggests the match could feature several goal-scoring opportunities, especially given the Basque Country's limited defensive data and the open nature of a friendly.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Basque Country

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Basque Country yet.

Venezuela

DDLWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
06 Oct 2026A Jordan0-0
02 Oct 2026A South Korea0-0
28 Sep 2026A Japan1-2
10 Jun 2026A Iraq2-0
06 Jun 2026H Türkiye1-2
Market aligned with main pickVenezuela to WinBet365 guide price · Model 21% vs implied 18% · edge +2.3 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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Venezuela Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Venezuela's recent form includes 5 points with an average of 0.8 goals scored and conceded per game, showing solid defensive organization and attacking output. The Basque Country's form is less clear due to limited data, but Venezuela's consistency provides a clear edge in momentum and .
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Basque Country-
Avg goals scored
Venezuela0.8
Basque Country-
Avg goals conceded
Venezuela0.8
Basque Country-
BTTS rate
Venezuela40%
Basque Country-
Over 2.5 goals
Venezuela40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +14 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Venezuela's recent matches show a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals and BTTS occurrences, suggesting moderate scoring and some defensive vulnerability. The Basque Country's lack of data limits prediction accuracy, but Venezuela's attacking tendencies point to a game with goal opportunities for both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVenezuela to WinBet365 guide price · Model 21% vs implied 18% · edge +2.3 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Venezuela Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 20.5% for Venezuela to Win sits against roughly 18.2% implied by the current price (+2.3 pts). Venezuela have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 0 for Basque Country.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Basque Country Over 2.5
40%Venezuela Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Venezuela has recorded a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals games, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. This trend suggests the match could feature several goal-scoring opportunities, especially given the Basque Country's limited defensive data and the open nature of a friendly.

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