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Peru crestPeru
v
Spain crestSpain

Friendlies | Tue 09 Jun, 03:00

Peru v Spain Stats

Data last updated: Sun 26 Jul 2026, 20:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Peru face Spain in Friendlies on Tue 09 Jun, 03:00. Spain are unbeaten in nine matches since their penalty shootout defeat to Portugal in the Nations League final in June 2025, winning six and drawing three. Spain have hit four goals in recent wins against Bulgaria and Georgia, demonstrating superior scoring power.

BT4Y best bet

Means Spain must win the match while completely preventing Peru from scoring

  • At 23/10, Means Spain must win the match while completely preventing Peru from scoring implies roughly 30%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 32%.
  • Spain have averaged significant goals in away outings, while keeping clean sheets, highlighting a tendency towards lower-event matching lines.
  • Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Peru.
  • Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Means Spain must win the match while completely preventing Peru from scoring angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 32% for Means Spain must win the match while completely preventing Peru from scoring sits against roughly 30% implied by the current price. Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Peru. Spain have averaged significant goals in away outings, while keeping clean sheets, highlighting a tendency towards lower-event matching lines.

Model chance vs price32% model chance against roughly 30% implied
Neutral
Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Spain have averaged significant goals in away outings.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Peru Win is the preferred angle because spain have averaged significant goals in away outings, while keeping clean sheets, highlighting a tendency towards lower-event matching lines. Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Peru. Peru, ranked 53rd, are not going to the World Cup, but that may actually sharpen their motivation.

Main risk

Peru, ranked 53rd, are not going to the World Cup, but that may actually sharpen their motivation.

Key Data Signals

Means Spain must win the match while completely preventing Peru from scoring evidence

Spain have averaged significant goals in away outings, while keeping clean sheets, highlighting a tendency towards lower-event matching.

Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Peru.

Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.33 conceded per match, which helps the Peru Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Means Spain must win the match while completely preventing Peru from scoring notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Peru4.67
    Avg corners for
    Spain7
    Peru10.33
    Avg total corners
    Spain8.33
    Peru2.67
    Avg yellow cards
    Spain0.67
    Peru8.33
    Avg shots
    Spain17.33
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge -0.1 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    more Friendlies analysisfull betting preview for Peru v Spaincorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Peru1.33
    Avg goals scored
    Spain1.33
    Peru1.67
    Avg goals conceded
    Spain0.33
    Peru67%
    BTTS rate
    Spain33%
    Peru67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Spain33%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 43% · edge +11.4 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPeru to WinBetUK guide price · Model 22% vs implied 7% · edge +15 pts
    15
    Check odds @ 15
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Peru Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 29%
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Peru to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Peru

    WDL
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    06 Jun 2026A Haiti2-1
    31 Mar 2026H Honduras2-2
    28 Mar 2026A Senegal0-2

    Spain

    DDW
    Last 51W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 0L
    04 Jun 2026H Iraq1-1
    31 Mar 2026H Egypt0-0
    27 Mar 2026H Serbia3-0
    Market aligned with main pickPeru to WinBetUK guide price · Model 22% vs implied 7% · edge +15 pts
    15
    Check odds @ 15
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 35%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Peru Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 29%
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Peru wins
    0Draws
    0Spain wins
    Market aligned with main pickPeru to WinBetUK guide price · Model 22% vs implied 7% · edge +15 pts
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Peru to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Peru4
    Played
    Spain4
    Peru1.3
    Avg goals for
    Spain1.8
    Peru2
    Avg goals against
    Spain0.5
    Peru0
    Clean sheets
    Spain2
    Market aligned with main pickPeru to WinBetUK guide price · Model 22% vs implied 7% · edge +15 pts
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    Load more odds for this section
    Peru Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 29%
    7
    Check odds @ 7
    Season data supports Peru to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    67%Peru Over 2.5
    33%Spain Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Peru sit at 67% and Spain sit at 33%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Peru v Spain prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    Friendlies hubmore Friendlies analysisfull betting preview for Peru v Spaincorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre