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Croatia crestCroatia
v
Slovenia crestSlovenia

Friendlies | Sun 07 Jun, 19:45

Croatia v Slovenia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 10 Jul 2026, 18:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Croatia face Slovenia in Friendlies on Sun 07 Jun, 19:45. Slovenia struggled to make an impact in group play, finishing third while managing only a single victory. A look at structural efficiency across the respective World Cup qualifying campaigns highlights a large gulf in form.

BT4Y lean · price warning

To succeed, Croatia must win the match while keeping a clean sheet

  • At 21/20, Croatia Win implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
  • With Budimir, Vlasic, and Baturina operating ahead of Modric, Croatia possess enough structural superiority to carve out a comfortable two-goal margin on home soil.
  • Slovenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Croatia.
  • Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.33 conceded per match, which helps the Croatia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

To succeed, Croatia must win the match while keeping a clean sheet is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 49% while the model sits nearer 33% (-15.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Slovenia Draw No Bet shows a +41.5 pts edge at 5.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 33% for Croatia Win sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Slovenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Croatia. With Budimir, Vlasic, and Baturina operating ahead of Modric, Croatia possess enough structural superiority to carve out a comfortable two-goal margin on home soil.

Model chance vs price33% model chance against roughly 49% implied
Negative
Slovenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.33 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
With Budimir, Vlasic, and Baturina operating ahead of Modric.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Croatia Win is the preferred angle because with Budimir, Vlasic, and Baturina operating ahead of Modric, Croatia possess enough structural superiority to carve out a comfortable two-goal margin on home soil. Slovenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Croatia. Croatia are too experienced to panic over friendly results, but they are also too proud to shrug them off entirely.

Main risk

Croatia are too experienced to panic over friendly results, but they are also too proud to shrug them off entirely.

Key Data Signals

Croatia Win evidence

With Budimir, Vlasic, and Baturina operating ahead of Modric, Croatia possess enough structural superiority to carve out a.

Slovenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Croatia.

Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.33 conceded per match, which helps the Croatia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Croatia Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Croatia2.5
    Avg corners for
    Slovenia1
    Croatia4.5
    Avg total corners
    Slovenia10
    Croatia1
    Avg yellow cards
    Slovenia3
    Croatia5
    Avg shots
    Slovenia5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 60% · edge -9.5 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    more Friendlies analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Croatia1
    Avg goals scored
    Slovenia1.33
    Croatia2
    Avg goals conceded
    Slovenia1.33
    Croatia67%
    BTTS rate
    Slovenia67%
    Croatia67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Slovenia33%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 42% · edge +34 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCroatia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 75% · edge -42.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    Croatia to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Croatia

    LLW
    Last 51W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 2L
    02 Jun 2026H Belgium0-2
    01 Apr 2026A Brazil1-3
    26 Mar 2026A Colombia2-1

    Slovenia

    DWL
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    04 Jun 2026H Cyprus1-1
    31 Mar 2026A Montenegro3-2
    28 Mar 2026A Hungary0-1
    Market aligned with main pickCroatia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 75% · edge -42.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.04
    Check odds @ 1.04
    Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Croatia wins
    1Draws
    1Slovenia wins
    26 Mar 2022Croatia v Slovenia1-1
    07 Sep 2021Croatia v Slovenia3-0
    24 Mar 2021Slovenia v Croatia1-0
    Market aligned with main pickCroatia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 75% · edge -42.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Croatia to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Croatia4
    Played
    Slovenia4
    Croatia1.3
    Avg goals for
    Slovenia1.3
    Croatia1.8
    Avg goals against
    Slovenia1.5
    Croatia0
    Clean sheets
    Slovenia0
    Market aligned with main pickCroatia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 75% · edge -42.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    Season data supports Croatia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    67%Croatia Over 2.5
    33%Slovenia Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Croatia sit at 67% and Slovenia sit at 33% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Croatia v Slovenia prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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