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Tre Fiori crestTre Fiori
v
Larne crestLarne

UEFA Champions League | Tue 07 Jul, 19:30

Tre Fiori v Larne Stats

Data last updated: Wed 29 Jul 2026, 00:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tre Fiori face Larne in UEFA Champions League on Tue 07 Jul, 19:30. Larne return to Northern Ireland with a one-goal advantage, but their Champions League first qualifying-round contest against Tre Fiori remains far from settled. Analysing Larne's attacking rhythm reveals they have consistently scored in ten consecutive home fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Tre Fiori Win

  • At 4/1, Tre Fiori Win implies roughly 20%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 35%.
  • Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 35% for Tre Fiori Win sits against roughly 20% implied by the current price. Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings.

Model chance vs price35% model chance against roughly 20% implied
Strong positive
Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Tre Fiori Win is the preferred angle because larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings. At some stage, they must push more players forward, accept greater risk and expose spaces that Larne were not consistently able to attack in the opening match.

Main risk

At some stage, they must push more players forward, accept greater risk and expose spaces that Larne were not consistently able to attack in the opening match.

Key Data Signals

Tre Fiori Win evidence

Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings.

What To Watch In The Data

Tre Fiori Win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickTre Fiori to WinBet365 guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Tre Fiori Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Tre Fiori to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Tre Fiori-
    Avg goals scored
    Larne-
    Tre Fiori-
    Avg goals conceded
    Larne-
    Tre Fiori-
    BTTS rate
    Larne-
    Tre Fiori-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Larne-
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 43% · edge +11.4 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Tre Fiori

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Tre Fiori yet.

    Larne

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Larne yet.

    Market aligned with main pickTre Fiori to WinBet365 guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Tre Fiori Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Tre Fiori wins
    0Draws
    0Larne wins
    Market aligned with main pickTre Fiori to WinBet365 guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Tre Fiori to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    UEFA Champions League

    Tre Fiori2
    Played
    Larne3
    Tre Fiori0.5
    Avg goals for
    Larne1
    Tre Fiori1.5
    Avg goals against
    Larne1.7
    Tre Fiori0
    Clean sheets
    Larne1
    Market aligned with main pickTre Fiori to WinBet365 guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Tre Fiori Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Season data supports Tre Fiori to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Tre Fiori Over 2.5
    -Larne Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    Larne's solid defensive stability is evident from keeping five clean sheets across their last six outings.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Tre Fiori v Larne prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre