Football Stats Hub

Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbrough
v
Cardiff crestCardiff

Championship | Sat 17 Oct, 12:30

Middlesbrough v Cardiff Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 12:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Middlesbrough and Cardiff meet in a Championship clash where physicality and intensity are expected to shape the contest. Middlesbrough, sitting 2nd in the table with 21 points, face Cardiff, who are 19th with 10 points, adding a competitive edge. Both teams have shown attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a lively encounter. The tactical setup and recent form hint at a match where fouls and disciplinary actions could be frequent, reflecting the high stakes and pressure on both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Middlesbrough average 1.4 yellow cards per game, Cardiff 1.8, indicating a physical contest.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates (80%), suggesting open play and challenges.
  • Recent form shows Middlesbrough with 11 points and Cardiff 7 from last matches, increasing competitive tension.
  • Player data shows several Cardiff midfielders with notable fouling and card risk, e.g., J. Colwill with 2 yellows and 2.56 fouls per 90.
  • The model estimates a 58.8% chance for over 3.5 cards, with positive value at 1.91 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Cards due to both teams' aggressive playing styles and disciplinary records. Middlesbrough and Cardiff average a combined 3.2 yellow cards per game, with midfielders like J. Colwill showing high foul and card risk. The match's competitive context and recent form suggest referees will likely issue multiple cards. The current of 1.91 offer positive value against the model's 58.8% probability, making this a statistically supported pick.

Average Yellow Cards per Game3.2 combined
Strong positive
Player Card RiskJ. Colwill 2 yellows, 2.56 fouls/90
Strong positive
Match IntensityHigh stakes, table gap
Positive
Model Probability58.8% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+6.4 pts)
Strong positive
Odds Value Edge58.8% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+6.4 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically charged game with both Middlesbrough and Cardiff pushing hard in midfield battles, increasing the likelihood of multiple fouls and cards. The data supports this with several Cardiff players showing high card risk and both teams averaging over 1.4 yellows per match. This combination of tactical intensity and player discipline trends makes Over 3.5 Cards a compelling selection.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's midfield duel and competitive stakes set the stage for a high-card count, especially with players like J. Colwill prone to fouling. The model's strong aligns well with the tactical battle expected on the pitch.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Middlesbrough average 1.4 yellow cards per game, Cardiff 1.8, indicating a physical contest.

Recent form shows Middlesbrough with 11 points and Cardiff 7 from last matches, increasing competitive tension.

Player data shows several Cardiff midfielders with notable fouling and card risk, e.g., J. Colwill with 2 yellows and 2.56 fouls per 90.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating open games with attacking tempo.
  • This offensive style often leads to defensive fouls and cards, supporting the trend towards a high number of bookings in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Middlesbrough2.4
Avg goals scored
Cardiff2
Middlesbrough1.8
Avg goals conceded
Cardiff1.2
Middlesbrough80%
BTTS rate
Cardiff80%
Middlesbrough80%
Over 2.5 goals
Cardiff60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both Middlesbrough and Cardiff have high BTTS rates at 80%, and their matches often feature multiple goals, with an average of 2.8 goals in their last 10 meetings. This attacking openness contributes to more fouls and disciplinary actions, supporting the expectation of a card-heavy game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 52% · edge +6.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Cardiff Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Middlesbrough to WinBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Cardiff to WinBetfred guide price · model 24%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
The 58.8% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+6.4 pts). Cardiff have the higher yellow-card average at 1.8, while Middlesbrough sit at 1.4.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Middlesbrough

WWDDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
13 Oct 2026A Stoke City3-2
10 Oct 2026H Wolves1-0
19 Sep 2026A Birmingham2-2
15 Sep 2026H Millwall2-2
12 Sep 2026H Norwich4-3

Cardiff

WLWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
13 Oct 2026H Watford5-1
10 Oct 2026A Blackburn1-2
19 Sep 2026H Charlton3-1
12 Sep 2026A Bolton0-1
08 Sep 2026H Stoke City1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 85% vs implied 88% · edge -3.1 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
Cardiff Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Middlesbrough to WinBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Cardiff to WinBetfred guide price · model 24%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Recent form shows Middlesbrough securing 11 points and Cardiff 7 in their last matches, reflecting competitive momentum. This intensity often correlates with increased fouling and disciplinary actions as both teams strive for points, reinforcing the likelihood of over 3.5 cards in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Middlesbrough Over 2.5
60%Cardiff Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating open games with attacking tempo. This offensive style often leads to defensive fouls and cards, supporting the trend towards a high number of bookings in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…