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Venezia crestVenezia
v
Napoli crestNapoli

Serie A | Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

Venezia v Napoli Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 02:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Venezia face Napoli in Serie A on Sat 17 Oct, 14:00. Their seven points from three league games and De Bruyne's goal contributions provide a solid foundation despite European away vulnerabilities. Napoli's recent domestic form and attacking strength against Venezia's leaky defence make them strong favourites for an away win.

BT4Y best bet

Napoli to win

  • At 3/4, Napoli to win implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • 16 goals conceded: Venezia possess Serie A's leakiest defence after six matches.
  • Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia.
  • Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Napoli to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Venezia sit 20 in the table, while Napoli sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for Napoli to win sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia. 16 goals conceded: Venezia possess Serie A's leakiest defence after six matches.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Positive
Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
16 goals conceded: Venezia possess Serie A's leakiest defence.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Napoli Win is the preferred angle because that scoring level conceded: Venezia possess Serie A's leakiest defence after six matches. Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Napoli to win evidence

16 goals conceded: Venezia possess Serie A's leakiest defence after six matches.

Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia.

Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Napoli Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Venezia sit 20 in the table, while Napoli sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Napoli to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Venezia1
    Avg goals scored
    Napoli1.6
    Venezia2.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Napoli1.2
    Venezia60%
    BTTS rate
    Napoli60%
    Venezia60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Napoli60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 59% · edge +14.5 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Napoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Napoli to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Venezia

    LLLLL
    Last 50W 0D 5L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 6L
    12 Oct 2026A Atalanta1-3
    19 Sep 2026H Lazio0-2
    11 Sep 2026H Fiorentina2-4
    06 Sep 2026A Frosinone2-3
    28 Aug 2026A AC Milan0-2

    Napoli

    WDWLL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 2L
    10 Oct 2026H Frosinone3-0
    20 Sep 2026A Fiorentina1-1
    13 Sep 2026H Bologna1-0
    05 Sep 2026A Inter2-3
    30 Aug 2026H Como1-2
    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    Napoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Venezia Over 2.5
    60%Napoli Over 2.5
    1.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Venezia sit at 60% and Napoli sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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