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Spartans crestSpartans
v
Stranraer crestStranraer

League Two | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Spartans v Stranraer Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stranraer arrive at Spartans with strong momentum, leading League Two and boasting a solid defensive record conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Spartans, ranked fourth, have struggled to score consistently, netting only 2 goals in recent matches. Stranraer's tactical discipline and higher points tally create a compelling competitive edge in this fixture, where Spartans will need to overcome a resilient away side to claim points. The match promises tactical intensity with Stranraer aiming to extend their lead at the top.

BT4Y best bet

Stranraer to Win

  • Stranraer lead League Two with 20 points, Spartans have 15.
  • Stranraer concede just 0.6 goals per game, Spartans concede 1.4.
  • Stranraer have a 70% to win, with positive value at 2.88 .
  • Recent form shows Stranraer scoring 3.4 goals per game, Spartans only 2.
  • Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of Stranraer's matches, indicating attacking potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Stranraer to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, defensive solidity, and league standing. Their ability to limit goals conceded to 0.6 per game contrasts with Spartans' 1.4, highlighting a defensive edge. Stranraer's higher scoring rate and consistent point accumulation underpin this . The offer positive value, reinforcing the bet's appeal. However, the limited shot and player data suggest monitoring line-ups and tactical changes before finalizing stakes.

Model Chance49.7% model chance vs 34.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent Scoring3.4 goals per game
Positive
League Position1st vs 4th
Positive
Data CompletenessLimited shot/player data
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Stranraer's superior defensive record and league leadership make them the tactical favorite to win at Spartans. Their recent scoring form and consistency provide a strong data foundation for backing their victory in this League Two clash.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage

“Stranraer's disciplined defense and effective attack create a clear tactical advantage in this fixture, making them a compelling choice despite the away setting.”

Key Data Signals

Stranraer to Win evidence

Stranraer lead League Two with 20 points, Spartans have 15.

Stranraer concede just 0.6 goals per game, Spartans concede 1.4.

Stranraer have a 70% to win, with positive value at 2.88 .

Recent form shows Stranraer scoring 3.4 goals per game, Spartans only 2.

What To Watch In The Data

Stranraer to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.6, supporting a trend towards moderately high-scoring matches.
  • Stranraer's recent over 2.5 goals rate of 80% suggests a continuation of attacking tempo and goal opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Spartans2
Avg goals scored
Stranraer3.4
Spartans1.4
Avg goals conceded
Stranraer0.6
Spartans40%
BTTS rate
Stranraer60%
Spartans60%
Over 2.5 goals
Stranraer80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 86% · edge -3.1 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Stranraer's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open and attacking games. Spartans' lower scoring rate and defensive vulnerabilities suggest goals are likely, supporting a higher-scoring encounter with potential for both teams to contribute.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickStranraer to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Stranraer Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 49.7% for Stranraer to Win sits against roughly 34.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Stranraer have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 9 for Spartans.

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Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Spartans

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
10 Oct 2026A Edinburgh City3-1
03 Oct 2026H Kelty Hearts0-2
19 Sep 2026A Dumbarton0-3
12 Sep 2026H Forfar Athletic5-1
05 Sep 2026A Stirling Albion2-0

Stranraer

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
10 Oct 2026A Annan Athletic6-1
03 Oct 2026H Edinburgh City0-0
19 Sep 2026A Elgin City5-1
12 Sep 2026H Dumbarton3-1
05 Sep 2026A Forfar Athletic3-0
Market aligned with main pickStranraer to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Stranraer Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Stranraer have accumulated 13 points recently with a strong goal-scoring and defensive record, outperforming Spartans who have 9 points and fewer goals scored. This recent form disparity highlights Stranraer's momentum and heading into the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Spartans Over 2.5
80%Stranraer Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.6, supporting a trend towards moderately high-scoring matches. Stranraer's recent over 2.5 goals rate of 80% suggests a continuation of attacking tempo and goal opportunities in this fixture.

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