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Peterborough crestPeterborough
v
Burton Albion crestBurton Albion

League One | Sat 17 Oct, 12:30

Peterborough v Burton Albion Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 05:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Peterborough face Burton Albion in League One on Sat 17 Oct, 12:30. Harry Leonard’s five goal contributions in six appearances highlight their offensive threat against a Burton defence that has failed to keep clean sheets in 16 of 19 League One matches.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Peterborough to win

  • At 4/5, Peterborough to win implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • Their away performances provide another concern.
  • Peterborough have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Peterborough to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Peterborough sit 22 in the table, while Burton Albion sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Peterborough to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 56% while the model sits nearer 47% (-9.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 9.5 Corners shows a +9.1 pts edge at 1.67.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 47% for Peterborough to win sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Peterborough have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Peterborough to win angle more than a raw possession edge. Their away performances provide another concern.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Negative
Peterborough have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Peterborough sit 22 in the table, while Burton Albion sit.Visible data support
Positive
Their away performances provide another concern.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Peterborough Win is the preferred angle because their away performances provide another concern. Peterborough have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Peterborough Win angle more than a raw possession edge. However, Burton’s attacking output on the road limits their capacity to exploit that situation.

Main risk

However, Burton’s attacking output on the road limits their capacity to exploit that situation.

Key Data Signals

Peterborough to win evidence

Their away performances provide another concern.

Peterborough have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Peterborough Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Peterborough sit 22 in the table, while Burton Albion sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Peterborough to win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPeterborough to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 55% · edge -8.1 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Peterborough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.52
    Check odds @ 1.52
    Peterborough to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Peterborough1
    Avg goals scored
    Burton Albion0.8
    Peterborough1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Burton Albion1.8
    Peterborough60%
    BTTS rate
    Burton Albion40%
    Peterborough40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Burton Albion60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for Peterborough and 40% for Burton Albion, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Peterborough

    WLLDL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 5L
    10 Oct 2026A Leicester3-1
    26 Sep 2026A Stockport County0-1
    19 Sep 2026H Doncaster0-2
    12 Sep 2026A Milton Keynes Dons1-1
    05 Sep 2026H Sheffield Wednesday1-2

    Burton Albion

    LLWDL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    10 Oct 2026A Doncaster0-1
    03 Oct 2026H Huddersfield1-3
    26 Sep 2026A Plymouth1-0
    19 Sep 2026H Mansfield Town2-2
    12 Sep 2026A Oxford United0-3
    Market aligned with main pickPeterborough to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 55% · edge -8.1 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Peterborough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.52
    Check odds @ 1.52
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Peterborough Over 2.5
    60%Burton Albion Over 2.5
    3.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Peterborough sit at 40% and Burton Albion sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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