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Peterborough crestPeterborough
v
Burton Albion crestBurton Albion

League One | Sat 17 Oct, 12:30

Peterborough v Burton Albion Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 12:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Peterborough host Burton Albion in a League One clash where both teams have shown tendencies for active wing play and set-piece involvement. Peterborough's recent matches feature a moderate corner count, while Burton Albion's defensive struggles and attacking transitions suggest a contest with frequent territorial shifts. Both sides have averaged over five corners per game combined, indicating a likely high-corner affair. The match timing and league stakes add urgency, with Peterborough seeking to improve their standing and Burton aiming to maintain their mid-table position, setting the stage for a physically contested game with numerous set-piece opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Peterborough average 6.6 corners per game, Burton Albion 5.2, combining for over 11 corners on average
  • Both teams show active wing play and frequent set-piece involvement leading to corner opportunities
  • Recent form shows both sides contesting matches with high corner counts
  • Match tempo and territorial shifts suggest sustained pressure and repeated deliveries into the box
  • Model at 79% with a 9.1% supports the corner market selection

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance of occurrence, exceeding the implied market chance of 59.9%. Both teams' season averages combine to over 11 corners per match, reflecting active wing play and defensive pressure. Peterborough's 6.6 and Burton Albion's 5.2 corners per game underpin this expectation. The rating of 79% indicates a robust statistical foundation, while recent form and tactical tendencies further support a high-corner count. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance69% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+9.1 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance69% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+9.1 pts)
Positive
Value Edge69% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+9.1 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level79%
Strong positive
Team Corner AveragesPeterborough 6.6, Burton Albion 5.2
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match marked by territorial battles and frequent wing attacks, driving a high number of corners. Peterborough's and Burton Albion's combined corner averages and recent match patterns suggest this fixture will see sustained pressure and multiple set-piece deliveries, making Over 9.5 Corners a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

This is a high-volatility market because a single late goal can change the outcome completely, but it offers significantly higher returns for accuracy.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“The corner count reflects the attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, with Peterborough's wing play and Burton Albion's transitions likely to generate numerous set-piece chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Peterborough average 6.6 corners per game, Burton Albion 5.2, combining for over 11 corners on average

Both teams show active wing play and frequent set-piece involvement leading to corner opportunities

Recent form shows both sides contesting matches with high corner counts

Match tempo and territorial shifts suggest sustained pressure and repeated deliveries into the box

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.2, indicating open play and attacking intent.
  • While this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and attacking patterns that produce goals also correlate with increased corner counts, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-corner match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 71% · edge +3.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Peterborough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+9.1 pts). Peterborough lead the corner sample at 6.6 per match, with Burton Albion lower at 5.2. Wide areas: Peterborough are very weak at defending attacks down the wings, and Burton’s crossing game is built to test exactly that.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Peterborough1
Avg goals scored
Burton Albion0.8
Peterborough1.4
Avg goals conceded
Burton Albion1.8
Peterborough60%
BTTS rate
Burton Albion40%
Peterborough40%
Over 2.5 goals
Burton Albion60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
While goal scoring is moderate, with Peterborough averaging 1.0 and Burton Albion 0.8 goals per game, the focus on corners stems from attacking patterns rather than goal volume. Both teams have mixed BTTS rates, but the corner market benefits from sustained wing play and defensive pressure rather than goal frequency.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Peterborough

WLLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
10 Oct 2026A Leicester3-1
26 Sep 2026A Stockport County0-1
19 Sep 2026H Doncaster0-2
12 Sep 2026A Milton Keynes Dons1-1
05 Sep 2026H Sheffield Wednesday1-2

Burton Albion

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Doncaster0-1
03 Oct 2026H Huddersfield1-3
26 Sep 2026A Plymouth1-0
19 Sep 2026H Mansfield Town2-2
12 Sep 2026A Oxford United0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +14 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Peterborough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Peterborough to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form shows both teams averaging around 11.8 corners combined per match, with Peterborough at 6.6 and Burton Albion at 5.2. This consistency in corner generation supports the Over 9.5 Corners bet, reflecting ongoing tactical emphasis on wing play and defensive pressure in recent fixtures.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Peterborough Over 2.5
60%Burton Albion Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.2, indicating open play and attacking intent. While this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and attacking patterns that produce goals also correlate with increased corner counts, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-corner match.

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