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Brentford crestBrentford
v
Liverpool crestLiverpool

Premier League | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Brentford v Liverpool Stats

Data last updated: Sun 08 Nov 2026, 03:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brentford face Liverpool in Premier League on Sat 17 Oct, 15:00. Michael Carrick's side have won only one of their opening six Premier League games, have drawn their last two league matches and arrive at Elland Road after Tuesday's draining 2-0 Champions League defeat at Atletico Madrid.

BT4Y best bet

Is straightforward: Liverpool possess vastly greater individual quality and arrive after scoring six goals in Europe

  • At 2.35, Is straightforward: Liverpool possess vastly greater individual quality and arrive after scoring six goals in Europe implies roughly 43%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 44%.
  • On the evidence in front of us, both clubs are extremely vulnerable away from home in Gameweek 7, and I am backing Leeds.
  • Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Brentford.
  • Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Is straightforward: Liverpool possess vastly greater individual quality and arrive after scoring six goals in Europe angle more than a.
  • Brentford sit 7 in the table, while Liverpool sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 44% for Is straightforward: Liverpool possess vastly greater individual quality and arrive after scoring six goals in Europe sits against roughly 43% implied by the current price. Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Brentford. On the evidence in front of us, both clubs are extremely vulnerable away from home in Gameweek 7, and I am backing Leeds.

Model chance vs price44% model chance against roughly 43% implied
Neutral
Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
On the evidence in front of us, both clubs.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Brentford Win is the preferred angle because on the evidence in front of us, both clubs are extremely vulnerable away from home in Gameweek 7, and I am backing Leeds and Brentford to take advantage. Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Brentford. Brentford escaped with a 1-1 draw there and Crystal Palace ground out a goalless stalemate, but nobody has beaten Farke's side in West Yorkshire this season.

Main risk

Brentford escaped with a 1-1 draw there and Crystal Palace ground out a goalless stalemate, but nobody has beaten Farke's side in West Yorkshire this season.

Key Data Signals

Is straightforward: Liverpool possess vastly greater individual quality and arrive after scoring six goals in Europe evidence

On the evidence in front of us, both clubs are extremely vulnerable away from home in Gameweek 7.

Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Brentford.

Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Brentford Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Brentford sit 7 in the table, while Liverpool sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Is straightforward: Liverpool possess vastly greater individual quality and arrive after scoring six goals in Europe notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Brentford1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Liverpool1
    Brentford1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Liverpool1
    Brentford80%
    BTTS rate
    Liverpool20%
    Brentford60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Liverpool40%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 86% · edge -7.7 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Brentford and 40% for Liverpool, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Brentford

    DWDDD
    Last 51W 4D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 0L
    10 Oct 2026A Aston Villa2-2
    18 Sep 2026H Chelsea3-0
    12 Sep 2026A Bournemouth2-2
    05 Sep 2026H Sunderland1-1
    30 Aug 2026A Leeds1-1

    Liverpool

    LWDWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 1L
    11 Oct 2026H Manchester City0-3
    20 Sep 2026A Bournemouth1-0
    12 Sep 2026H Fulham0-0
    04 Sep 2026A Ipswich2-0
    29 Aug 2026H Nottingham Forest2-2
    Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 43% · edge +1.2 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Brentford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 43% · edge +1.2 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Brentford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Brentford to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Brentford Over 2.5
    40%Liverpool Over 2.5
    3.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Brentford sit at 60% and Liverpool sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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