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Benevento crestBenevento
v
Vicenza Virtus crestVicenza Virtus

Serie B | Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

Benevento v Vicenza Virtus Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benevento hosts Vicenza Virtus in a Serie B clash where Benevento's solid recent form contrasts sharply with Vicenza's struggles. Benevento has collected 10 points from their last five matches, showcasing a disciplined defense conceding just 0.6 goals per game, while Vicenza has managed only 2 points and concedes over 2 goals per match. Benevento's tactical setup emphasizes control and efficient finishing, aiming to capitalize on home advantage against a Vicenza side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities and limited attacking threat. This match carries importance for Benevento to consolidate their position in the top half, while Vicenza seeks to arrest their poor run.

BT4Y best bet

Benevento to Win

  • Benevento has earned 10 points in last five games versus Vicenza's 2 points.
  • Benevento concedes only 0.6 goals per match, Vicenza concedes 2.2 on average.
  • Benevento averages 15 shots and 4.2 shots on target per game, higher than Vicenza's 11.2 and 2.6 respectively.
  • Vicenza's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, but Benevento's defensive solidity suggests a tighter game.
  • Benevento ranks 8th in Serie B, Vicenza 16th, reflecting current form disparity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Benevento to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, stronger defense, and more potent attack compared to Vicenza Virtus. Benevento's ability to limit goals conceded (0.6 per game) and generate more shots (15 per game) supports their control over matches. Vicenza's defensive frailties and low points tally further strengthen the case. The price offers positive value with a 24% edge over the implied chance, making Benevento a compelling pick without price sensitivity concerns.

Recent formBenevento 10 points vs Vicenza 2 points
Strong positive
Defensive recordBenevento concedes 0.6 goals/game
Strong positive
Attacking outputBenevento averages 15 shots/game
Positive
Vicenza defensive weaknessConcedes 2.2 goals/game
Strong positive
Price value edge65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Benevento's consistent form and defensive discipline provide a tactical foundation for victory against a struggling Vicenza side. Their ability to create more chances and limit opposition opportunities underpins the in a home win. The data confirms Benevento's superiority in key areas, making them the logical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Benevento's balanced approach combining solid defense and effective attacking pressure makes them the clear favorites here. Vicenza's defensive lapses and poor recent results leave them vulnerable to a well-organized home side.”

Key Data Signals

Benevento to Win evidence

Benevento has earned 10 points in last five games versus Vicenza's 2 points.

Benevento concedes only 0.6 goals per match, Vicenza concedes 2.2 on average.

Benevento averages 15 shots and 4.2 shots on target per game, higher than Vicenza's 11.2 and 2.6 respectively.

Vicenza's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, but Benevento's defensive solidity suggests a tighter game.

What To Watch In The Data

Benevento to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Vicenza's games have featured an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open and high-scoring encounters.
  • Benevento's matches have a lower 20% rate, reflecting tighter defensive matches.
  • The H2H average of 2.2 goals per game suggests moderate scoring, but Benevento's defensive discipline may suppress the total goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benevento1.4
Avg goals scored
Vicenza Virtus0.8
Benevento0.6
Avg goals conceded
Vicenza Virtus2.2
Benevento40%
BTTS rate
Vicenza Virtus60%
Benevento20%
Over 2.5 goals
Vicenza Virtus80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The goals and BTTS data suggest a controlled scoring environment, with Benevento conceding only 0.6 goals per game and a BTTS rate of 40%. Vicenza's higher BTTS rate (60%) and over 2.5 goals rate (80%) indicate they often participate in higher-scoring matches, but Benevento's defensive discipline may limit this, favoring a lower-scoring, Benevento-focused outcome.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenevento to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 65% for Benevento to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Benevento have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Vicenza Virtus.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benevento

WWWLD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Cesena2-0
19 Sep 2026A Carrarese1-0
11 Sep 2026H Hellas Verona3-1
05 Sep 2026A Ascoli0-1
30 Aug 2026H Sudtirol1-1

Vicenza Virtus

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Pisa0-3
20 Sep 2026A Hellas Verona1-2
12 Sep 2026H Juve Stabia1-1
06 Sep 2026A Virtus Entella2-2
29 Aug 2026A Avellino0-3
Market aligned with main pickBenevento to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Benevento's recent form is markedly superior, with 10 points from the last five matches compared to Vicenza's 2. Benevento's defensive solidity and consistent goal scoring underpin this form, while Vicenza struggles to convert chances and maintain defensive stability. This momentum difference strongly favors Benevento to secure victory in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Benevento Over 2.5
80%Vicenza Virtus Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Vicenza's games have featured an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open and high-scoring encounters. Benevento's matches have a lower 20% rate, reflecting tighter defensive matches. The H2H average of 2.2 goals per game suggests moderate scoring, but Benevento's defensive discipline may suppress the total goals in this fixture.

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