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Queen of the South crestQueen of the South
v
Ross County crestRoss County

League One | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Queen of the South v Ross County Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Queen of the South face Ross County in a League One clash where the home side aims to leverage their solid recent form and home advantage against the league leaders. Queen of the South have accumulated 10 points and sit sixth, showing resilience despite conceding more goals than they score. Ross County lead the table with 25 points and a potent attack, but their defensive solidity will be tested by Queen of the South's tactical discipline. This match presents a competitive challenge with Queen of the South seeking to avoid defeat and capitalize on any slip-ups from the visitors.

BT4Y best bet

Queen of the South Draw No Bet

  • Queen of the South have earned 10 points and rank 6th, showing competitive form at home.
  • Ross County lead the league with 25 points but face a tough defensive test.
  • Queen of the South concede 3.2 goals per game but maintain a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open matches.
  • Ross County have a strong attack averaging 4.2 goals per game, but their BTTS rate is only 40%.
  • The model suggests strong value in Queen of the South Draw No Bet at of 5.25 with a 45% chance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Queen of the South Draw No Bet as a strong value selection due to the significant price discrepancy between the implied chance (19%) and the model's estimated chance (45%). Despite Queen of the South's defensive vulnerabilities, their home form and ability to avoid defeat against strong opponents underpin this pick. Ross County's high scoring does not guarantee a win here, making the draw no bet a safer option with a favorable risk-reward profile. No price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake approach.

Model Chance34% model chance vs 19% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance34% model chance vs 19% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge34% model chance vs 19% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Queen of the South Home FormPositive
Positive
Ross County Attack StrengthStrong but not dominant in BTTS
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Queen of the South's home resilience and tactical discipline make the Draw No Bet an appealing choice against the league leaders. Ross County's attacking threat is significant, but Queen of the South's ability to avoid defeat is backed by recent results and the model's . This bet balances the risk of conceding goals with the chance to capitalize on Ross County's occasional defensive lapses.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · betting value and tactical balance

“Queen of the South's defensive frailties are offset by their home form and the value offered by the Draw No Bet market, making this a compelling wager against a strong Ross County side.”

Key Data Signals

Queen of the South Draw No Bet evidence

Queen of the South have earned 10 points and rank 6th, showing competitive form at home.

Ross County lead the league with 25 points but face a tough defensive test.

Queen of the South concede 3.2 goals per game but maintain a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open matches.

Ross County have a strong attack averaging 4.2 goals per game, but their BTTS rate is only 40%.

What To Watch In The Data

Queen of the South Draw No Bet notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.2, supporting an Over 2.5 goals trend.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 rates (60% for Queen of the South, 80% for Ross County) indicate a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by attacking tempo and defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Queen of the South1.4
Avg goals scored
Ross County4.2
Queen of the South3.2
Avg goals conceded
Ross County0.6
Queen of the South60%
BTTS rate
Ross County40%
Queen of the South60%
Over 2.5 goals
Ross County80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 58% · edge +8.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams show contrasting goal profiles: Queen of the South have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate and a 60% BTTS rate, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Ross County's 80% over 2.5 rate but only 40% BTTS rate suggests they score heavily but often keep clean sheets. This mix points to a match with multiple goals but possible defensive solidity from the visitors.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickQueen of the South Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Queen of the South to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 34% for Queen of the South Draw No Bet sits against roughly 19% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Ross County have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Queen of the South.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Queen of the South

WWLLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
10 Oct 2026A Peterhead1-0
03 Oct 2026H Cove Rangers4-3
19 Sep 2026A Hamilton Academical1-4
15 Sep 2026A Ross County0-8
12 Sep 2026H East Fife1-1

Ross County

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 0L
10 Oct 2026A Montrose5-0
03 Oct 2026H Alloa Athletic4-1
19 Sep 2026A Cove Rangers2-0
15 Sep 2026H Queen of the South8-0
05 Sep 2026A East Fife2-2
Market aligned with main pickQueen of the South Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Queen of the South to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Queen of the South have earned 7 points recently, showing resilience despite defensive challenges, while Ross County have collected 13 points, emphasizing their strong form. The home side's ability to secure points against tough opponents supports the Draw No Bet selection, as they can frustrate even the league leaders.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Queen of the South Over 2.5
80%Ross County Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.2, supporting an Over 2.5 goals trend. Both teams' recent over 2.5 rates (60% for Queen of the South, 80% for Ross County) indicate a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by attacking tempo and defensive vulnerabilities.

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