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Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV
v
VfB Stuttgart crestVfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30

Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 19:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart meet in a Bundesliga clash where both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Hamburger SV has struggled defensively, conceding three goals in recent matches, while VfB Stuttgart also concedes regularly but creates more chances. Both teams have earned six points recently, indicating competitive form. This fixture promises an open game with offensive players likely to find space, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter with multiple goal opportunities from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Hamburger SV concedes an average of 3 goals recently, indicating defensive frailty.
  • VfB Stuttgart averages 1.6 goals scored per game, showing attacking threat.
  • Both teams have a combined 70% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 4.1 goals per game, highlighting goal-rich encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 54.4% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, slightly above the implied market chance of 50%, indicating a small positive . Both teams have shown tendencies for high-scoring games, with Hamburger SV's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and VfB Stuttgart's 60%. The attacking profiles of key players and recent matches averaging over 4 goals support the likelihood of a goal-laden match. No data limitations or price warnings reduce , making this a solid selection for a high-scoring bet.

Model Chance54.4% model chance vs 50% implied (+4.4 pts)
Positive
Hamburger SV Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
VfB Stuttgart Over 2.5 Rate60%
Positive
H2H Average Goals4.1 goals per match
Positive
Market Implied Chance54.4% model chance vs 50% implied (+4.4 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and dynamic match as both Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart have shown attacking intent but defensive lapses. The high average goals in recent meetings and current form suggest a lively game with multiple scoring chances, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match scoring potential

“This fixture features two teams with attacking strengths but defensive weaknesses, creating fertile ground for a high-scoring match. The statistical trends and player profiles point to a game where goals are likely to flow freely.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Hamburger SV concedes an average of 3 goals recently, indicating defensive frailty.

VfB Stuttgart averages 1.6 goals scored per game, showing attacking threat.

Both teams have a combined 70% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals.

Recent head-to-head matches average 4.1 goals per game, highlighting goal-rich encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.1 goals, well above typical scoring rates.
  • This trend over a significant sample suggests a pattern of open games with high tempo and attacking opportunities, supporting the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hamburger SV1
Avg goals scored
VfB Stuttgart1.6
Hamburger SV3
Avg goals conceded
VfB Stuttgart1.8
Hamburger SV40%
BTTS rate
VfB Stuttgart60%
Hamburger SV80%
Over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4.4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have demonstrated a propensity for matches with multiple goals, with Hamburger SV's 80% and VfB Stuttgart's 60% over 2.5 goals rates. The head-to-head average of 4.1 goals further reinforces the expectation of a goal-rich encounter, with both sides likely to contribute to the scoreline.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionVfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 53% · edge +8.3 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
VfB Stuttgart to WinBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
The 54.4% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+4.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Hamburger SV and 60% for VfB Stuttgart, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hamburger SV

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 3L
10 Oct 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim3-2
19 Sep 2026H 1. FC Köln2-1
13 Sep 2026A RB Leipzig0-5
06 Sep 2026H FSV Mainz 050-5
29 Aug 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-2

VfB Stuttgart

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 3L
10 Oct 2026A SC Paderborn 072-0
19 Sep 2026H Borussia Dortmund0-1
12 Sep 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim1-2
04 Sep 2026H 1. FC Köln4-1
28 Aug 2026A Bayern München1-5
Best odds for this sectionVfB Stuttgart Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 53% · edge +8.3 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
VfB Stuttgart to WinBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Hamburger SV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Recent form shows Hamburger SV with a high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%, while VfB Stuttgart maintains a 60% rate. Both teams have scored modestly but conceded more, indicating matches prone to multiple goals. This recent output aligns well with the Over 3.5 Goals selection, reflecting ongoing attacking and defensive trends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Hamburger SV Over 2.5
60%VfB Stuttgart Over 2.5
4.1H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.1 goals, well above typical scoring rates. This trend over a significant sample suggests a pattern of open games with high tempo and attacking opportunities, supporting the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.

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