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Carrarese crestCarrarese
v
Modena crestModena

Serie B | Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

Carrarese v Modena Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B fixture features Carrarese hosting Modena, with Modena currently third in the standings and Carrarese struggling near the relegation zone. Modena's recent form shows strong attacking output and defensive solidity, while Carrarese has scored sparingly and collected just four points so far. Modena's tactical setup emphasizes high pressing and quick transitions, which could exploit Carrarese's defensive vulnerabilities. The away side's and quality in attack set the stage for a challenging match for Carrarese, who will need to improve their offensive threat to counter Modena's control.

BT4Y best bet

Modena to Win

  • Modena ranks 3rd with 13 points; Carrarese is 17th with 4 points.
  • Modena averages 1.8 goals per game; Carrarese only 0.6.
  • Modena has a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate; Carrarese has none.
  • Modena averages 23.2 shots and 7 SOT per game, double Carrarese's output.
  • Montevago leads with 3.46 goals per 90 and high shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Modena's 70% to win reflects their superior attacking and recent form metrics compared to Carrarese. The away side's high shot volume and goal threat, led by D. Montevago, underpin this . Carrarese's low scoring and points tally contrast sharply, reinforcing Modena's edge. The price at 1.8 offers positive value given the 14.4% and strong model , making Modena to win a compelling selection. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Chance70% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+14.4 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge70% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+14.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormModena 10 points vs Carrarese 4
Strong positive
Goal ThreatModena 1.8 goals/game vs Carrarese 0.6
Strong positive
Shot VolumeModena 23.2 shots/game vs Carrarese 12.2
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Modena's tactical approach and superior recent form make them the clear favorites to win this match. Their high attacking output and ability to create numerous chances contrast with Carrarese's struggles in front of goal, suggesting Modena's victory is the most likely outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Modena's consistent offensive pressure and clinical finishing set them apart in this fixture, making their win the most probable result given Carrarese's limited attacking threat and defensive frailties.”

Key Data Signals

Modena to Win evidence

Modena ranks 3rd with 13 points; Carrarese is 17th with 4 points.

Modena averages 1.8 goals per game; Carrarese only 0.6.

Modena has a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate; Carrarese has none.

Modena averages 23.2 shots and 7 SOT per game, double Carrarese's output.

What To Watch In The Data

Modena to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.33, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Modena's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate in recent games indicates a tendency for higher-scoring matches, driven by their attacking style and Carrarese's defensive vulnerabilities, supporting expectations for goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Carrarese0.6
Avg goals scored
Modena1.8
Carrarese0.8
Avg goals conceded
Modena1
Carrarese20%
BTTS rate
Modena60%
Carrarese0%
Over 2.5 goals
Modena60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +12.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Modena's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate contrast with Carrarese's low scoring and 20% BTTS rate, suggesting a match inclined towards multiple goals and both teams scoring is less likely. Modena's offensive potency drives the expectation for goals.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickModena to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Modena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 70% for Modena to Win sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+14.4 pts). Modena have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Carrarese.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Carrarese

WLLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
11 Oct 2026A Padova2-0
19 Sep 2026H Benevento0-1
12 Sep 2026A Catanzaro0-1
05 Sep 2026H Empoli0-1
29 Aug 2026A Ascoli1-1

Modena

WWDLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
11 Oct 2026H Hellas Verona3-2
20 Sep 2026H Empoli2-1
12 Sep 2026A Sudtirol1-1
06 Sep 2026H Avellino0-1
28 Aug 2026A Cremonese3-0
Market aligned with main pickModena to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Modena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Modena's recent form is strong with 10 points collected and an average of 1.8 goals scored per game, highlighting effective attacking and consistent results. Carrarese's 4 points and 0.6 goals per game reflect offensive struggles and difficulty securing points, underscoring the form gap favoring Modena.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Carrarese Over 2.5
60%Modena Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.33, suggesting moderate scoring. Modena's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate in recent games indicates a tendency for higher-scoring matches, driven by their attacking style and Carrarese's defensive vulnerabilities, supporting expectations for goals in this fixture.

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