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FC Schalke 04 crestFC Schalke 04
v
FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30

FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 05:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Schalke 04 face FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 14:30. FC Schalke 04 come in with 5 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while FSV Mainz 05 have 7 points and 2.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

FSV Mainz 05 to Win

  • At 2.3, FSV Mainz 05 to Win implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for FC Schalke 04.
  • FC Schalke 04 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the FSV Mainz 05 to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • FC Schalke 04 sit 17 in the table, while FSV Mainz 05 sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for FSV Mainz 05 to Win sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for FC Schalke 04.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Strong positive
FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support
Positive
FC Schalke 04 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: FSV Mainz 05 Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for FC Schalke 04. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

FSV Mainz 05 to Win evidence

FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for FC Schalke 04.

FC Schalke 04 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the FSV Mainz 05 Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

FC Schalke 04 sit 17 in the table, while FSV Mainz 05 sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

FSV Mainz 05 to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    FC Schalke 040.8
    Avg goals scored
    FSV Mainz 052.6
    FC Schalke 041.2
    Avg goals conceded
    FSV Mainz 052
    FC Schalke 0440%
    BTTS rate
    FSV Mainz 0560%
    FC Schalke 0460%
    Over 2.5 goals
    FSV Mainz 0580%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 83% · edge -3.1 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for FC Schalke 04 and 80% for FSV Mainz 05, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Bundesliga hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Load more odds for this section
    FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    FSV Mainz 05 to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    FC Schalke 04

    LDWDL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 2L
    11 Oct 2026A SC Freiburg1-2
    20 Sep 2026H SV Elversberg0-0
    11 Sep 2026A Union Berlin3-1
    05 Sep 2026H Bayern München0-0
    30 Aug 2026A FC Augsburg0-3

    FSV Mainz 05

    LWLWD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 2L
    10 Oct 2026H Bayer Leverkusen3-4
    19 Sep 2026A Borussia Mönchengladbach4-3
    12 Sep 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-3
    06 Sep 2026A Hamburger SV5-0
    29 Aug 2026H SC Paderborn 070-0
    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
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    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 83%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%FC Schalke 04 Over 2.5
    80%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: FC Schalke 04 sit at 60% and FSV Mainz 05 sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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