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Everton crestEverton
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Chelsea crestChelsea

Premier League | Sat 17 Oct, 12:30

Everton v Chelsea Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 12:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier League clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium features Everton, who have struggled at home with just one win in their last eight matches, against Chelsea, who despite recent setbacks, possess superior technical quality and tactical control. Chelsea's 59% average possession and 87.3% passing accuracy underpin their approach to dominate the midfield and dictate tempo. Everton face defensive challenges with key absences, notably James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite, weakening their aerial presence. Chelsea's attacking threats, led by João Pedro, Cole Palmer, and Enzo Fernández, are poised to exploit these vulnerabilities in a fixture that carries significant table implications and momentum shifts for both sides.

BT4Y match pick

Chelsea to Win

  • Chelsea have kept clean sheets in their last four Premier League games against Everton.
  • Everton have won only one of their last eight home matches across all competitions.
  • Chelsea average 59% possession and 13.8 shots per game this season, indicating strong attacking volume.
  • Everton are missing key defenders Tarkowski and Branthwaite, impacting their defensive stability.
  • Chelsea's João Pedro has scored 14 league goals, leading a potent attacking line.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Chelsea's technical superiority and recent defensive solidity against Everton create a compelling case for their victory. Despite the current price being short with a negative , Chelsea's control of possession and higher shot volume, combined with Everton's weakened defense and poor home form, support this football-led selection. Reduced staking is advised due to the price sensitivity, with potential improvements coming from line-up confirmations or drift.

Possession and Passing AccuracyChelsea average 59% possession and 87.3% pass accuracy
Strong positive
Recent Defensive Record vs EvertonChelsea have kept four consecutive clean sheets against Everton
Strong positive
Everton Home FormOne win in last eight home matches
Negative
Key Defensive AbsencesTarkowski and Branthwaite out for Everton
Negative
Price Sensitivity44% model chance vs 47.6% implied (-3.6 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Chelsea's superior midfield control and attacking depth make them the likely winners in this fixture. Everton's defensive absences and poor home record further tilt the balance. Data on possession and shot creation reinforce Chelsea's advantage, suggesting they can secure the three points with disciplined performance.

Main risk

Their weakness at defending counter attacks is one issue, but the bigger problem here is volume.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Chelsea's tactical and technical superiority

“Chelsea's ability to control possession and create quality chances through key players like João Pedro gives them a decisive edge over an Everton side weakened defensively and struggling for form at home.”

Key Data Signals

Chelsea to Win evidence

Chelsea have kept clean sheets in their last four Premier League games against Everton.

Everton have won only one of their last eight home matches across all competitions.

Chelsea average 59% possession and 13.8 shots per game this season, indicating strong attacking volume.

Everton are missing key defenders Tarkowski and Branthwaite, impacting their defensive stability.

What To Watch In The Data

Chelsea to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.2, with Chelsea maintaining four consecutive clean sheets against Everton.
  • This trend indicates a controlled tempo with Chelsea's defensive strength limiting Everton's scoring opportunities, supporting a lower-scoring match with Chelsea likely to prevail.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Everton1.2
Avg goals scored
Chelsea2.4
Everton1
Avg goals conceded
Chelsea2.2
Everton60%
BTTS rate
Chelsea80%
Everton40%
Over 2.5 goals
Chelsea100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent meetings between Everton and Chelsea have been low scoring, with Chelsea keeping four consecutive clean sheets. Chelsea's higher shot volume and Everton's defensive struggles suggest a controlled game with limited goals, aligning with a probable Chelsea victory without high BTTS likelihood.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premier League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Everton v Chelseacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickChelsea to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 48% · edge -3.6 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Chelsea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 44% for Chelsea to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (-3.6 pts). Everton have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Chelsea to Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Can David Moyes turn home grit into a statement against Chelsea’s wounded firepower?
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Everton

DWDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 0L
11 Oct 2026A Hull City2-2
19 Sep 2026H Ipswich1-0
12 Sep 2026A Tottenham0-0
06 Sep 2026H Manchester United2-2
29 Aug 2026A Bournemouth1-1

Chelsea

WLDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Bournemouth5-1
18 Sep 2026A Brentford0-3
12 Sep 2026H Hull City2-2
06 Sep 2026A Arsenal1-2
30 Aug 2026H Brighton4-3
Market aligned with main pickChelsea to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 48% · edge -3.6 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Chelsea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have earned 7 points recently, but Chelsea's form includes four clean sheets against Everton, highlighting defensive resilience. Everton's recent home form is poor, with only one win in eight matches, reflecting struggles to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity against top opponents like Chelsea.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Everton Over 2.5
100%Chelsea Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.2, with Chelsea maintaining four consecutive clean sheets against Everton. This trend indicates a controlled tempo with Chelsea's defensive strength limiting Everton's scoring opportunities, supporting a lower-scoring match with Chelsea likely to prevail.

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