Football Stats Hub

Real Sociedad II crestReal Sociedad II
v
Almeria crestAlmeria

Segunda División | Sat 17 Oct, 13:00

Real Sociedad II v Almeria Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Almeria arrives at this Segunda División clash in strong form, leading the table with 21 points and boasting a formidable defensive record, conceding just 0.2 goals per game. In contrast, Real Sociedad II sits 19th with 8 points and a leaky defense allowing 2.4 goals per match. Almeria's attacking efficiency and defensive solidity set the stage for a confident away performance, while Real Sociedad II's struggles at the back and lower league standing add pressure. This fixture presents a clear tactical mismatch, with Almeria expected to control the game and press for victory.

BT4Y best bet

Almeria to Win

  • Almeria leads the league with 21 points and a strong defensive record (0.2 goals conceded per game).
  • Real Sociedad II ranks 19th, conceding 2.4 goals per game and scoring only 1.4 on average.
  • Almeria averages 14.8 shots per game with 5.4 on target, showing offensive threat.
  • Real Sociedad II has a high BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate (80%), indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Miguel de la Fuente and Thalys provide key attacking options for Almeria with strong shot and goal stats.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Almeria to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their league-leading form and defensive strength. Almeria's low goals conceded and efficient attack contrast sharply with Real Sociedad II's defensive frailties and lower league position. The of 22.4% indicates the at 2.1 offer attractive value. While Real Sociedad II shows a high rate of high-scoring games, Almeria's ability to limit opponents' chances and convert their own shots supports the away win prediction. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Odds62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Almeria Defensive Record0.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Real Sociedad II Defensive Weakness2.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsAlmeria 15 vs Real Sociedad II 3
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Almeria's superior form and defensive discipline make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to limit Real Sociedad II's attacking opportunities, combined with clinical finishing from key forwards, underpins this confident away win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Almeria's defensive resilience and attacking efficiency create a strong foundation for an away win, especially against a Real Sociedad II side vulnerable at the back and struggling for points.”

Key Data Signals

Almeria to Win evidence

Almeria leads the league with 21 points and a strong defensive record (0.2 goals conceded per game).

Real Sociedad II ranks 19th, conceding 2.4 goals per game and scoring only 1.4 on average.

Almeria averages 14.8 shots per game with 5.4 on target, showing offensive threat.

Real Sociedad II has a high BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate (80%), indicating defensive vulnerability.

What To Watch In The Data

Almeria to Win notes

  • The last four head-to-head matches average four goals per game, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters.
  • Real Sociedad II's high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Almeria's more moderate 40%, suggesting potential for goals but also Almeria's capacity to contain the opposition's scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Real Sociedad II1.4
Avg goals scored
Almeria2
Real Sociedad II2.4
Avg goals conceded
Almeria0.2
Real Sociedad II80%
BTTS rate
Almeria20%
Real Sociedad II80%
Over 2.5 goals
Almeria40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 82% · edge -0.2 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Real Sociedad II's matches frequently feature goals and both teams scoring, with an 80% BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Almeria's more conservative 20% BTTS rate and 40% Over 2.5 rate suggest they can control the game and limit scoring, supporting a win without necessarily a high-scoring shootout.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlmeria to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Almeria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 62.6% for Almeria to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Almeria have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 3 for Real Sociedad II.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Real Sociedad II

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
10 Oct 2026A Celta de Vigo II1-4
04 Oct 2026H Granada CF2-3
26 Sep 2026A AD Ceuta FC1-3
19 Sep 2026H Mallorca0-1
12 Sep 2026A FC Andorra3-1

Almeria

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 2L
11 Oct 2026H Leganes3-0
03 Oct 2026H Burgos2-1
27 Sep 2026A Mallorca1-0
20 Sep 2026H Celta de Vigo II2-0
12 Sep 2026A Cordoba2-0
Market aligned with main pickAlmeria to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Almeria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Almeria's recent form is impressive, accumulating 15 points compared to Real Sociedad II's 3 in the same period. This momentum reflects consistent winning performances and defensive solidity, contrasting with Real Sociedad II's struggles to secure points and maintain defensive stability, reinforcing in the away win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Real Sociedad II Over 2.5
40%Almeria Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
The last four head-to-head matches average four goals per game, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters. Real Sociedad II's high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Almeria's more moderate 40%, suggesting potential for goals but also Almeria's capacity to contain the opposition's scoring chances.

Loading deeper match data…