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Werder Bremen crestWerder Bremen
v
SC Paderborn 07 crestSC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 05:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Werder Bremen face SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 14:30. Werder Bremen come in with 8 recent points and 2 goals per match, while SC Paderborn 07 have 4 points and 0.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Werder Bremen to Win

  • At 1.8, Werder Bremen to Win implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Werder Bremen have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Paderborn 07.
  • SC Paderborn 07 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Werder Bremen to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Werder Bremen sit 6 in the table, while SC Paderborn 07 sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Werder Bremen to Win sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Werder Bremen have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Paderborn 07.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Positive
Werder Bremen have the stronger recent points return, taking 8.Visible data support
Positive
SC Paderborn 07 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Werder Bremen Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Werder Bremen have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Paderborn 07. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Werder Bremen to Win evidence

Werder Bremen have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for SC Paderborn 07.

SC Paderborn 07 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Werder Bremen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Werder Bremen sit 6 in the table, while SC Paderborn 07 sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Werder Bremen to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Werder Bremen2
    Avg goals scored
    SC Paderborn 070.6
    Werder Bremen2
    Avg goals conceded
    SC Paderborn 071.4
    Werder Bremen100%
    BTTS rate
    SC Paderborn 0720%
    Werder Bremen80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    SC Paderborn 0740%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 65% · edge +4.6 pts
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 100% for Werder Bremen and 20% for SC Paderborn 07, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickWerder Bremen to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.8 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Werder Bremen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Werder Bremen to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

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    Bundesliga fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Werder Bremen

    DWDWL
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 1L
    09 Oct 2026A Borussia Dortmund2-2
    19 Sep 2026H FC Augsburg3-2
    12 Sep 2026A 1. FC Köln1-1
    05 Sep 2026H RB Leipzig3-1
    30 Aug 2026A SC Freiburg1-4

    SC Paderborn 07

    LWLLD
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 3L
    10 Oct 2026H VfB Stuttgart0-2
    20 Sep 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim3-1
    12 Sep 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-3
    05 Sep 2026H SC Freiburg0-1
    29 Aug 2026A FSV Mainz 050-0
    Market aligned with main pickWerder Bremen to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.8 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Werder Bremen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Werder Bremen Over 2.5
    40%SC Paderborn 07 Over 2.5
    4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Werder Bremen sit at 80% and SC Paderborn 07 sit at 40% with the H2H average at 4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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