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Lincoln crestLincoln

Championship | Sat 17 Oct, 12:30

Millwall v Lincoln Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 12:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Championship clash features Millwall hosting Lincoln in a fixture where Lincoln aims to build on recent resilience despite sitting lower in the table. Millwall, positioned 11th with 14 points, have struggled to convert chances into goals, averaging 1.2 goals per game but conceding 1.6. Lincoln, ranked 18th with 11 points, have a more defensive approach, conceding 2.2 goals per game but showing potential to frustrate opponents. Both teams have a 60% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting an open game with attacking intent from Millwall and counter opportunities for Lincoln.

BT4Y best bet

Lincoln or Draw

  • Lincoln has a 66.6% to avoid defeat, offering strong value at 2.2 .
  • Millwall averages more shots (13) and shots on target (4) per game than Lincoln, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Lincoln’s defensive record is weaker, conceding 2.2 goals per game, but their resilience supports a draw or better outcome.
  • Millwall’s recent form shows 5 points from last matches, while Lincoln has 6 points, reflecting competitive momentum.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lincoln or Draw with a 66.6% chance, highlighting Lincoln's ability to avoid defeat against a Millwall side that struggles to finish chances efficiently. Lincoln's defensive resilience and recent form underpin this, despite their lower league position. The at 2.2 provide positive value, reflecting a market underestimation of Lincoln's defensive solidity and potential to frustrate Millwall's attack. Both teams’ tendency for over 2.5 goals suggests an open match, but Lincoln’s counter-attacking threat and Millwall’s conversion issues tilt the model towards a double chance on Lincoln.

Model chance for Lincoln or Draw35% model chance vs 20% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied chance from odds35% model chance vs 20% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Millwall’s shots and attacking pressure13 shots per game, 4 on target
Positive
Lincoln’s defensive concessions2.2 goals against per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lincoln or Draw is a tactically sound choice given Lincoln’s recent form and defensive resilience against a Millwall side that creates chances but struggles to convert. The data supports Lincoln’s ability to secure at least a point, making this a solid double chance selection with both football and statistical backing.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and defensive resilience

“Lincoln’s defensive organization and recent points haul make them a credible threat to avoid defeat here, especially against a Millwall side that has yet to find consistent goal-scoring form at home.”

Key Data Signals

Lincoln or Draw evidence

Lincoln has a 66.6% to avoid defeat, offering strong value at 2.2 .

Millwall averages more shots (13) and shots on target (4) per game than Lincoln, indicating offensive pressure.

Lincoln’s defensive record is weaker, conceding 2.2 goals per game, but their resilience supports a draw or better outcome.

Millwall’s recent form shows 5 points from last matches, while Lincoln has 6 points, reflecting competitive momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Lincoln or Draw notes

  • Over the last ten matches, both teams have a 60% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating a trend towards open, attacking games.
  • This suggests the fixture could see multiple goal opportunities, with Millwall’s offensive pressure and Lincoln’s defensive lapses contributing to a potentially high-tempo encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Millwall1.2
Avg goals scored
Lincoln0.6
Millwall1.6
Avg goals conceded
Lincoln2.2
Millwall60%
BTTS rate
Lincoln20%
Millwall60%
Over 2.5 goals
Lincoln60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 80% · edge -2 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating an openness in play and potential for multiple goal events. Millwall’s higher attacking output contrasts with Lincoln’s defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting goals could come from both sides but with Lincoln likely to focus on containment and counter-attacks.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLincoln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Lincoln to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Millwall Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The 35% for Lincoln or Draw sits against roughly 20% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Millwall

LWDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
13 Oct 2026H Swansea0-1
10 Oct 2026A Preston1-0
19 Sep 2026H West Ham2-2
15 Sep 2026A Middlesbrough2-2
12 Sep 2026A Blackburn1-3

Lincoln

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
14 Oct 2026H West Ham0-6
10 Oct 2026A Sheffield Utd0-3
19 Sep 2026H Swansea1-2
15 Sep 2026A Bristol City1-0
12 Sep 2026A Preston1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Lincoln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Lincoln to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Millwall Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Millwall to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Recent form data shows Lincoln gaining 6 points in their last matches, slightly better than Millwall’s 5 points, reflecting Lincoln’s growing and ability to secure results. Millwall’s struggle to convert chances into goals contrasts with Lincoln’s defensive focus, supporting the likelihood of a tight contest with Lincoln avoiding defeat.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Millwall Over 2.5
60%Lincoln Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, both teams have a 60% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating a trend towards open, attacking games. This suggests the fixture could see multiple goal opportunities, with Millwall’s offensive pressure and Lincoln’s defensive lapses contributing to a potentially high-tempo encounter.

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