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SV Elversberg crestSV Elversberg
v
FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg

Bundesliga | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30

SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 20:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SV Elversberg hosts FC Augsburg in a Bundesliga clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities. SV Elversberg has scored 1.6 goals per game but conceded the same, while Augsburg averages 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Recent matches indicate a high likelihood of multiple goals, with Augsburg boasting a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season. The fixture promises open play and goalmouth action, with both sides eager to climb the league standings and capitalize on their offensive strengths.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg both have over 2.5 goals rates of 60% and 100% respectively this season.
  • Augsburg averages 13.6 shots and 6.8 shots on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.
  • SV Elversberg’s M. Krattenmacher is a key goal threat with 3 goals and 2.62 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • The only previous meeting between these teams saw an average of 4 goals, supporting a high-scoring outlook.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance for over 3.5 goals, reflecting the attacking profiles and recent form of both teams. Augsburg’s perfect over 2.5 goals rate and high shot volumes combine with SV Elversberg’s offensive output to suggest a match with multiple scoring opportunities. The 10.4% at 2.1 indicates this market is priced attractively. No data limitations affect , and the attacking roles of players like Krattenmacher and Kade further support the expectation of a goal-rich game.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Positive
Value Edge58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Shot Volume Augsburg13.6 per game
Strong positive
Shot Volume SV Elversberg9.6 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg have shown tendencies to concede and score frequently. Augsburg’s strong offensive numbers and Elversberg’s willingness to engage in open play suggest a lively encounter with multiple goals scored. The data supports a bet on over 3.5 goals as a plausible outcome given recent trends and player roles.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two teams with attacking intent and defensive fragility, making over 3.5 goals a compelling angle. Augsburg’s high shot and goal rates combined with Elversberg’s key attacking players create a scenario ripe for multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg both have over 2.5 goals rates of 60% and 100% respectively this season.

Augsburg averages 13.6 shots and 6.8 shots on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.

SV Elversberg’s M. Krattenmacher is a key goal threat with 3 goals and 2.62 shots on target per 90 minutes.

The only previous meeting between these teams saw an average of 4 goals, supporting a high-scoring outlook.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last meeting between these teams, an average of 4 goals was scored, indicating a precedent for high-scoring matches.
  • Recent trends over the last five matches for both sides show frequent over 2.5 goals outcomes, driven by open tempo and defensive gaps, supporting the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SV Elversberg1.6
Avg goals scored
FC Augsburg2.6
SV Elversberg1.6
Avg goals conceded
FC Augsburg1.6
SV Elversberg60%
BTTS rate
FC Augsburg80%
SV Elversberg60%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Augsburg100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have strong goal-scoring and conceding records, with Augsburg’s 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Elversberg’s 60% BTTS rate highlighting the likelihood of goals at both ends. Their previous meeting averaged 4 goals, reinforcing the expectation of multiple goals and BTTS in this fixture.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 69% · edge +8.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
FC Augsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+10.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for SV Elversberg and 100% for FC Augsburg, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SV Elversberg

LDLWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
10 Oct 2026A Union Berlin0-1
20 Sep 2026A FC Schalke 040-0
13 Sep 2026H Bayern München1-2
05 Sep 2026A Borussia Mönchengladbach4-3
29 Aug 2026H Bayer Leverkusen3-2

FC Augsburg

DLDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
10 Oct 2026H Bayern München2-2
19 Sep 2026A Werder Bremen2-3
12 Sep 2026H Bayer Leverkusen2-2
06 Sep 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt4-1
30 Aug 2026H FC Schalke 043-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 67% · edge +12.4 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
FC Augsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
SV Elversberg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
SV Elversberg to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Recent form data shows Augsburg with 8 points and Elversberg with 7, both scoring and conceding at rates supporting over 3.5 goals. Augsburg’s perfect over 2.5 goals rate this season and Elversberg’s 60% rate reflect matches with multiple goals, indicating momentum towards an open, goal-rich encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%SV Elversberg Over 2.5
100%FC Augsburg Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the last meeting between these teams, an average of 4 goals was scored, indicating a precedent for high-scoring matches. Recent trends over the last five matches for both sides show frequent over 2.5 goals outcomes, driven by open tempo and defensive gaps, supporting the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.

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