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Union Berlin crestUnion Berlin
v
Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund

Bundesliga | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30

Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 04:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Union Berlin face Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 14:30. Borussia Dortmund travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei on Saturday, 17 October, looking to maintain their unbeaten Bundesliga record and potentially move clear at the summit. Dortmund’s unbeaten start and strong scoring contrast with Union’s defensive frailties and absences.

BT4Y best bet

Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -1

  • At 5.5, Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -1 implies roughly 18%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Dortmund’s scoring contrasts with Union’s defensive struggles, suggesting goals.
  • Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Berlin.
  • Borussia Dortmund have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -1 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Union Berlin sit 16 in the table, while Borussia Dortmund sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -1 sits against roughly 18% implied by the current price. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Berlin. Dortmund’s scoring contrasts with Union’s defensive struggles, suggesting goals.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 18% implied
Positive
Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 13.Visible data support
Positive
Borussia Dortmund have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Dortmund’s scoring contrasts with Union’s defensive struggles, suggesting goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Union Berlin Win is the preferred angle because dortmund’s scoring contrasts with Union’s defensive struggles, suggesting goals. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Berlin. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -1 evidence

Dortmund’s scoring contrasts with Union’s defensive struggles, suggesting goals.

Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Berlin.

Borussia Dortmund have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Union Berlin Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Union Berlin sit 16 in the table, while Borussia Dortmund sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -1 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Union Berlin1
    Avg goals scored
    Borussia Dortmund2.2
    Union Berlin3.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Borussia Dortmund0.8
    Union Berlin40%
    BTTS rate
    Borussia Dortmund40%
    Union Berlin80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Borussia Dortmund60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 88% vs implied 88% · edge +0.3 pts
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 80% for Union Berlin and 60% for Borussia Dortmund, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickUnion Berlin to WinBetUK guide price · Model 27% vs implied 18% · edge +8.8 pts
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
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    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Union Berlin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Union Berlin to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Bundesliga fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmundcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Union Berlin

    WLLLD
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 3L
    10 Oct 2026H SV Elversberg1-0
    18 Sep 2026A Bayern München0-7
    11 Sep 2026H FC Schalke 041-3
    05 Sep 2026A Bayer Leverkusen0-4
    29 Aug 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt3-3

    Borussia Dortmund

    DWWWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 0L
    09 Oct 2026H Werder Bremen2-2
    19 Sep 2026A VfB Stuttgart1-0
    12 Sep 2026H SC Paderborn 073-0
    05 Sep 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim3-2
    29 Aug 2026H Hamburger SV2-0
    Market aligned with main pickUnion Berlin to WinBetUK guide price · Model 27% vs implied 18% · edge +8.8 pts
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Union Berlin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Union Berlin Over 2.5
    60%Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5
    3.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Union Berlin sit at 80% and Borussia Dortmund sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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