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Fulham crestFulham
v
Hull City crestHull City

Premier League | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Fulham v Hull City Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fulham face Hull City at Craven Cottage, both teams grappling with defensive frailties that have shaped their early Premier League campaigns. Fulham, yet to secure a league win, have conceded 10 goals in six matches and struggle to protect leads, having dropped eight points from winning positions. Hull City, despite a strong start, have conceded twice in each of their last three games and will field a reorganized defense missing Nobel Mendy. Hull's direct, physical style contrasts with Fulham's possession approach, setting the stage for an open, high-tempo encounter likely to produce multiple goals.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 58%, above the 52% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Fulham have conceded 10 goals in six league matches, including seven at home.
  • Hull City have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last three Premier League games.
  • Both teams have scored in 60% of their last five matches, indicating attacking potency.
  • Fulham have scored eight goals across four home fixtures in all competitions.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 58% while the model sits nearer 52% (-6.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 4.5 Cards shows a +15 pts edge at 2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies a 51.5% chance for over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and attacking capabilities. Fulham's difficulty in maintaining leads and Hull's consistent concession of two goals per match underpin the expectation of an open game. However, the current imply a 57.9% chance, making the price short and the selection price-sensitive rather than a pure value bet. Reduced staking or waiting for drift is advisable. The football context remains strong due to tactical mismatches and recent scoring trends.

Defensive WeaknessesFulham conceded 10 goals; Hull conceded 2 in last 3 matches
Strong positive
Attacking OutputFulham scored 8 goals at home; Hull's Belloumi with 5 goal involvements
Positive
Price Sensitivity51.5% model chance vs 57.8% implied (-6.3 pts)
Negative
Recent BTTS RatesBoth teams have 60% BTTS in last 5 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The tactical contrast between Fulham's possession-based attack and Hull City's direct style, combined with both teams' defensive lapses, makes over 2.5 goals a compelling pick. Fulham's inability to protect leads and Hull's recent concession patterns suggest a match prone to multiple goals. The data and football context align well to support this selection.

Main risk

However, Hull's direct playing style and ability to compete physically could make this a difficult afternoon for the hosts.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal market rationale

“Fulham's defensive struggles and Hull City's direct attacking approach create a fertile environment for goals, making over 2.5 a logical expectation despite the price sensitivity.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Fulham have conceded 10 goals in six league matches, including seven at home.

Hull City have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last three Premier League games.

Both teams have scored in 60% of their last five matches, indicating attacking potency.

Fulham have scored eight goals across four home fixtures in all competitions.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten meetings between Fulham and Hull City, the average goals scored is 2.5 per match.
  • Recent matches have seen Fulham win four consecutive encounters without conceding, but current defensive struggles on both sides suggest this trend may not continue.
  • The goal trend points to a match capable of producing over 2.5 goals given the tempo and tactical openness.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fulham0.8
Avg goals scored
Hull City1.2
Fulham1.4
Avg goals conceded
Hull City1.2
Fulham60%
BTTS rate
Hull City60%
Fulham40%
Over 2.5 goals
Hull City60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 58% · edge -6.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams show attacking intent and defensive frailty, with Fulham conceding 10 goals in six matches and Hull conceding twice in each of their last three games. Both sides have a 60% BTTS rate recently, supporting the likelihood of multiple goals and goals at both ends. The tactical contrast and recent scoring patterns suggest an open game favoring over 2.5 goals.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 58% · edge -6.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Hull City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Hull City to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Fulham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The 51.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (-6.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Fulham and 60% for Hull City, so the goals angle is not just a price call. The prediction for over 2.5 goals is based on both teams' defensive struggles and Fulham's strong home scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fulham

LDDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Ipswich1-2
20 Sep 2026H Manchester United1-1
12 Sep 2026A Liverpool0-0
05 Sep 2026H Crystal Palace2-3
30 Aug 2026A Sunderland0-1

Hull City

DLDDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
11 Oct 2026H Everton2-2
19 Sep 2026A Newcastle1-2
12 Sep 2026A Chelsea2-2
05 Sep 2026H Aston Villa0-0
29 Aug 2026A Coventry1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Hull City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Hull City to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Fulham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Fulham to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Recent form data shows Fulham have scored 0.8 goals per game and conceded 1.4, while Hull score 1.2 and concede 1.2. Both teams have over 2.5 goals in 40% (Fulham) and 60% (Hull) of recent matches, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring game. Fulham's struggle to maintain leads and Hull's defensive lapses underpin this trend.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Fulham Over 2.5
60%Hull City Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings between Fulham and Hull City, the average goals scored is 2.5 per match. Recent matches have seen Fulham win four consecutive encounters without conceding, but current defensive struggles on both sides suggest this trend may not continue. The goal trend points to a match capable of producing over 2.5 goals given the tempo and tactical openness.

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