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Aberdeen crestAberdeen
v
ST Mirren crestST Mirren

Premiership | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Aberdeen v ST Mirren Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 09:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aberdeen approach this Premiership clash with strong momentum, having secured three wins and three clean sheets in their last four matches under Stephen Robinson's guidance. Their defensive solidity and home form at Pittodrie, where they have won six of their last nine matches, contrast sharply with ST Mirren's struggles. The Saints arrive on a four-match losing streak without scoring, compounded by multiple key absences that weaken their attack. This match is poised to be a test of Aberdeen's tactical control and defensive discipline against a St Mirren side battling to halt their slide and find offensive rhythm under intense relegation pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Aberdeen to Win

  • Aberdeen have won 3 of their last 4 matches with 3 clean sheets.
  • ST Mirren have lost 4 straight games without scoring a goal.
  • Aberdeen have won 6 of their last 9 home matches across competitions.
  • ST Mirren have lost 7 of their last 10 away league matches in 2026.
  • Aberdeen's defensive structure under Robinson has improved markedly this season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Aberdeen to Win with a 62% chance, reflecting their recent defensive discipline and home form. Aberdeen's three clean sheets in four matches and six wins in nine home games underscore their solidity, while St Mirren's four consecutive scoreless defeats highlight their offensive struggles. The 11/10 offer positive value with a 14.4% edge over the implied probability. This pick is supported by tactical control and momentum, though the limited away form of St Mirren adds some uncertainty to the final outcome.

Recent FormAberdeen 3 wins in last 4, St Mirren 4 losses in a row
Strong positive
Defensive SolidityAberdeen 3 clean sheets in last 4 matches
Strong positive
Home AdvantageAberdeen 6 wins in last 9 home matches
Positive
Away StrugglesSt Mirren 7 losses in last 10 away matches
Positive
Price Value62% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+7.4 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Aberdeen's recent tactical improvements and home form make them the clear favourites to secure victory. Their defensive discipline contrasts with St Mirren's offensive woes, suggesting Aberdeen will control midfield and limit chances. This combination of form and structure supports a confident home win prediction.

Main risk

Nisbet's 12 goals show he is a key threat but do not guarantee a goal.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical control and form

“Aberdeen's revitalised defensive shape and home momentum create a strong foundation for victory, especially against a St Mirren side struggling to find the net and cohesion.”

Key Data Signals

Aberdeen to Win evidence

Aberdeen have won 3 of their last 4 matches with 3 clean sheets.

ST Mirren have lost 4 straight games without scoring a goal.

Aberdeen have won 6 of their last 9 home matches across competitions.

ST Mirren have lost 7 of their last 10 away league matches in 2026.

What To Watch In The Data

Aberdeen to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, recent trends and current form suggest a lower scoring match, with Aberdeen's defensive discipline and St Mirren's scoring drought pointing to under 3 goals likely in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aberdeen1
Avg goals scored
ST Mirren0.4
Aberdeen1
Avg goals conceded
ST Mirren2.2
Aberdeen20%
BTTS rate
ST Mirren20%
Aberdeen40%
Over 2.5 goals
ST Mirren60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams to score is unlikely given St Mirren's four consecutive matches without a goal and Aberdeen's three clean sheets in four games. The under 3.5 goals route is also supported by cautious play expected from Aberdeen to maintain control and St Mirren's offensive struggles, indicating a low-scoring match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aberdeen

LDWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
11 Oct 2026H ST Johnstone0-1
19 Sep 2026A Hibernian1-1
15 Sep 2026A Motherwell4-0
05 Sep 2026H Kilmarnock0-0
02 Sep 2026A Celtic0-3

ST Mirren

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Heart Of Midlothian0-5
19 Sep 2026H Dundee Utd0-3
09 Sep 2026A Rangers0-1
05 Sep 2026H Celtic1-2
02 Sep 2026A Kilmarnock1-0
Market aligned with main pickAberdeen to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 55% · edge +7.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Aberdeen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Aberdeen's recent form is marked by three wins and a draw in their last four matches, with a strong defensive record of three clean sheets. Conversely, St Mirren have lost their last four matches without scoring, highlighting a stark contrast in momentum and that heavily favours Aberdeen.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAberdeen to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 55% · edge +7.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Aberdeen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 62% for Aberdeen to Win sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+7.4 pts). Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Mirren. Last weekend's 5-0 humiliation against Hearts represented their lowest point, following a 3-0 home defeat against Dundee United.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Aberdeen Over 2.5
60%ST Mirren Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating moderate scoring. However, recent trends and current form suggest a lower scoring match, with Aberdeen's defensive discipline and St Mirren's scoring drought pointing to under 3 goals likely in this fixture.

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