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Aberdeen crestAberdeen
v
ST Mirren crestST Mirren

Premiership | Tue 12 May, 19:45

Aberdeen v ST Mirren Stats

Data last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026, 02:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aberdeen face ST Mirren in Premiership on Tue 12 May, 19:45. Aberdeen have won three of their last four league matches without conceding a single goal. Aberdeen are in excellent form with three wins and a clean sheet in their last four matches.

BT4Y best bet

Dom and rhythm under Robinson's guidance

  • At 11/10, Aberdeen Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Venue Impact: Home Strength vs Away Struggles
  • Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Mirren.
  • Aberdeen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Aberdeen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Aberdeen sit 3 in the table, while ST Mirren sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Aberdeen Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Mirren. Venue Impact: Home Strength vs Away Struggles

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Strong positive
Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Aberdeen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Venue Impact: Home Strength vs Away StrugglesArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aberdeen Win is the preferred angle because venue Impact: Home Strength vs Away Struggles Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Mirren. If the visitors cannot compete physically in that area, they risk spending long periods pinned back around their own penalty area.

Main risk

If the visitors cannot compete physically in that area, they risk spending long periods pinned back around their own penalty area.

Key Data Signals

Aberdeen Win evidence

Venue Impact: Home Strength vs Away Struggles

Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for ST Mirren.

Aberdeen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Aberdeen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Aberdeen sit 3 in the table, while ST Mirren sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Aberdeen Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aberdeen1.4
    Avg goals scored
    ST Mirren0.4
    Aberdeen0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    ST Mirren1.4
    Aberdeen20%
    BTTS rate
    ST Mirren0%
    Aberdeen20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    ST Mirren20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15.2 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 40%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aberdeen

    WDWWL
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    09 May 2026H Dundee Utd2-0
    01 May 2026A Livingston2-2
    25 Apr 2026H Kilmarnock1-0
    11 Apr 2026H Hibernian2-0
    04 Apr 2026A ST Mirren0-2

    ST Mirren

    LLLLW
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 7L
    09 May 2026H Kilmarnock0-3
    02 May 2026A Dundee0-1
    25 Apr 2026H Livingston0-2
    11 Apr 2026A Celtic0-1
    04 Apr 2026H Aberdeen2-0
    Market aligned with main pickAberdeen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 46% · edge +28.5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Aberdeen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8Aberdeen33339618-15
    10ST Mirren30337917-21
    3Aberdeen403811720-15
    5ST Mirren343881020-25
    Aberdeen sit in position 3, while ST Mirren sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Aberdeen Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAberdeen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 46% · edge +28.5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Aberdeen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 40%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Aberdeen to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Aberdeen4.2
    Avg corners for
    ST Mirren6
    Aberdeen9
    Avg total corners
    ST Mirren10.8
    Aberdeen1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    ST Mirren2
    Aberdeen11.2
    Avg shots
    ST Mirren11.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +9.3 pts
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Aberdeen wins
    2Draws
    6ST Mirren wins
    04 Apr 2026ST Mirren v Aberdeen2-0
    03 Dec 2025Aberdeen v ST Mirren3-3
    18 Oct 2025ST Mirren v Aberdeen0-1
    03 May 2025ST Mirren v Aberdeen1-0
    25 Jan 2025Aberdeen v ST Mirren0-3
    23 Nov 2024ST Mirren v Aberdeen2-1
    Market aligned with main pickAberdeen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 46% · edge +28.5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 40%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Aberdeen to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Aberdeen38
    Played
    ST Mirren40
    Aberdeen1.1
    Avg goals for
    ST Mirren0.8
    Aberdeen1.4
    Avg goals against
    ST Mirren1.4
    Aberdeen10
    Clean sheets
    ST Mirren10
    Market aligned with main pickAberdeen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 46% · edge +28.5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Aberdeen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Season data supports Aberdeen to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Aberdeen Over 2.5
    20%ST Mirren Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aberdeen sit at 20% and ST Mirren sit at 20% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.