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Aberdeen crestAberdeen
v
ST Mirren crestST Mirren

Premiership | Sat 13 Mar, 15:00

Aberdeen v ST Mirren Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 05:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aberdeen face ST Mirren in Premiership on Sat 13 Mar, 15:00. The visitors' poor away record further supports a home victory in this fixture. St Mirren's recent heavy defeats and poor away form support a clean sheet for Aberdeen, though a defensive collapse could widen the margin.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Aberdeen to win

  • At 20/23, Aberdeen to win implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
  • Last weekend's 5-0 humiliation against Hearts represented their lowest point, following a 3-0 home defeat against Dundee United.
  • ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Aberdeen.
  • ST Mirren have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Aberdeen to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Aberdeen sit 11 in the table, while ST Mirren sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Aberdeen to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 54% while the model sits nearer 38% (-15.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 38% for Aberdeen to win sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Aberdeen. Last weekend's 5-0 humiliation against Hearts represented their lowest point, following a 3-0 home defeat against Dundee United.

Model chance vs price38% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Negative
ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 4.Visible data support
Positive
ST Mirren have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Last weekend's 5-0 humiliation against Hearts represented their lowest.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aberdeen Win is the preferred angle because last weekend's 5-0 humiliation against Hearts represented their lowest point, following a 3-0 home defeat against Dundee United. ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Aberdeen. Nisbet's that scoring level show he is a key threat but do not guarantee a goal.

Main risk

Nisbet's 12 goals show he is a key threat but do not guarantee a goal.

Key Data Signals

Aberdeen to win evidence

Last weekend's 5-0 humiliation against Hearts represented their lowest point, following a 3-0 home defeat against Dundee United.

ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Aberdeen.

ST Mirren have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Aberdeen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Aberdeen sit 11 in the table, while ST Mirren sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Aberdeen to win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aberdeen1
    Avg goals scored
    ST Mirren0.8
    Aberdeen2
    Avg goals conceded
    ST Mirren1.6
    Aberdeen40%
    BTTS rate
    ST Mirren60%
    Aberdeen60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    ST Mirren40%

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aberdeen

    LLLWL
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    07 Nov 2026H Hibernian0-4
    28 Oct 2026H Falkirk0-1
    24 Oct 2026A Dundee Utd2-3
    17 Oct 2026H ST Mirren3-1
    11 Oct 2026H ST Johnstone0-1

    ST Mirren

    LLDWL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 7L
    07 Nov 2026H Rangers0-2
    31 Oct 2026A Motherwell0-1
    28 Oct 2026H Hibernian1-1
    24 Oct 2026H Dundee2-1
    17 Oct 2026A Aberdeen1-3

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Aberdeen Over 2.5
    40%ST Mirren Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aberdeen sit at 60% and ST Mirren sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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