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TPV crestTPV
v
JJK crestJJK

Ykkönen | Sun 05 Jul, 13:00

TPV v JJK Stats

Data last updated: Mon 17 Aug 2026, 19:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

TPV face JJK in Ykkönen on Sun 05 Jul, 13:00. TPV come in with 2 recent points and 1.2 goals per match, while JJK have 10 points and 3.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • At 1.83, Over 3.5 Goals implies roughly 55%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for TPV and 80% for JJK, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • JJK are carrying more of the scoring load at 3.6 goals per match, with TPV at 1.2.
  • BTTS rates of 80% for TPV and 80% for JJK show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 55% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for TPV and 80% for JJK, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 55% implied
Neutral
The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for TPV and 80%.Visible data support
Positive
JJK are carrying more of the scoring load at 3.6.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for TPV and 80% for JJK, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for TPV and 80% for JJK, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

JJK are carrying more of the scoring load at 3.6 goals per match, with TPV at 1.2.

BTTS rates of 80% for TPV and 80% for JJK show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

TPV1.2
Avg goals scored
JJK3.6
TPV2.4
Avg goals conceded
JJK1.6
TPV80%
BTTS rate
JJK80%
TPV80%
Over 2.5 goals
JJK80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 55% · edge +1.9 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 3.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 80% for TPV and 80% for JJK, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
JJK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
JJK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
TPV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
TPV to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

TPV

LDDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 7L
29 Jun 2026A VJS1-2
14 Jun 2026A PKKU2-2
06 Jun 2026H Inter Turku II1-1
29 May 2026H Tampere United0-3
23 May 2026A SalPa2-4

JJK

WWLDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
25 Jun 2026H Inter Turku II11-1
13 Jun 2026A KPV-j3-2
06 Jun 2026H PKKU1-3
02 Jun 2026H VJS2-2
28 May 2026H OLS1-0
Best odds for this sectionJJK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 73% · edge +3.5 pts
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
JJK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
TPV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
TPV to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0TPV wins
1Draws
2JJK wins
18 Apr 2026JJK v TPV2-1
18 Jan 2026TPV v JJK2-2
06 Jun 2020JJK v TPV2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
JJK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
TPV to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ykkönen

TPV20
Played
JJK20
TPV1.5
Avg goals for
JJK2.3
TPV1.9
Avg goals against
JJK2
TPV2
Clean sheets
JJK3
Best odds for this sectionJJK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 73% · edge +3.5 pts
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Load more odds for this section
JJK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
TPV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
TPV to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Season data supports JJK Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8JJK27207676
9TPV2120569-9
TPV sit in position 9, while JJK sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Over 3.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%TPV Over 2.5
80%JJK Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: TPV sit at 80% and JJK sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.