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Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz
v
Ried crestRied

Bundesliga | Sun 25 Oct, 13:30

Sturm Graz v Ried Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 22:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sturm Graz and Ried meet in a Bundesliga clash where both teams have shown attacking intent and a tendency to generate set-piece opportunities. Sturm Graz ranks 4th with 17 points, while Ried is close behind in 5th with 14 points, making this a competitive fixture. Both sides average a combined 9.6 corners per game, reflecting their offensive pressure and wing play. Recent form indicates high attacking output and a propensity for sustained territorial advantage, setting the stage for a corner-rich encounter at this midweek meeting.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Sturm Graz averages 6.2 corners per game, Ried 3.4, combining for 9.6 corners on average.
  • Both teams have attacking styles that produce frequent wing play and set-piece chances.
  • Recent matches show strong corner counts aligning with the Over 9.5 Corners pick.
  • Model is high at 69% with a positive of 19.5%.
  • Both teams rank closely in the table, suggesting a competitive and open game likely to generate corners.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance, well above the implied market chance of 49.5%. Sturm Graz's high average of 6.2 corners per game combined with Ried's 3.4 corners supports a corner-heavy match. Both teams' attacking tendencies and recent form further reinforce the likelihood of frequent set-piece situations. The model's at 88% underscores the robustness of this prediction, making it a compelling corner market selection for this fixture.

Sturm Graz average corners6.2 per game
Strong positive
Ried average corners3.4 per game
Positive
Model chance vs implied chance64.5% model chance vs 49.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent form corner trendsConsistently high corner counts
Positive
Competition contextClose league positions suggest open play
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively contest with Sturm Graz's aggressive wing play and Ried's resilience likely to produce numerous corners. The statistical edge in corner averages combined with both teams' offensive approaches makes Over 9.5 Corners a tactically sound and data-backed choice for this Bundesliga fixture.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corner market rationale

“Sturm Graz's control down the flanks and Ried's counter-attacking style create a perfect storm for corner opportunities, making Over 9.5 Corners a well-supported market in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Sturm Graz averages 6.2 corners per game, Ried 3.4, combining for 9.6 corners on average.

Both teams have attacking styles that produce frequent wing play and set-piece chances.

Recent matches show strong corner counts aligning with the Over 9.5 Corners pick.

Model is high at 69% with a positive of 19.5%.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, indicating open and attacking encounters.
  • This tempo often results in frequent set-piece situations, especially corners, as both teams push offensively.
  • The trend over recent matches supports a high-tempo game with multiple corner chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sturm Graz2.2
Avg goals scored
Ried2.4
Sturm Graz1.6
Avg goals conceded
Ried1.6
Sturm Graz60%
BTTS rate
Ried100%
Sturm Graz80%
Over 2.5 goals
Ried80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both Sturm Graz and Ried have strong attacking outputs, with over 2.5 goals rates at 80% for each side and BTTS rates of 60% and 100% respectively. This offensive openness often correlates with increased set-piece situations, supporting a higher corner count. The average of 2.7 goals in their last 10 meetings further indicates open play conducive to corners.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 64% · edge +11.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Ried Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Ried to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The 64.5% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 49.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Sturm Graz lead the corner sample at 6.2 per match, with Ried lower at 3.4.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sturm Graz

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 2L
18 Oct 2026H Grazer AK6-1
10 Oct 2026A Austria Vienna2-0
20 Sep 2026A Red Bull Salzburg0-3
13 Sep 2026H Lask Linz2-1
30 Aug 2026A Rapid Vienna1-3

Ried

WWWDL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 3L
17 Oct 2026H Austria Vienna3-2
10 Oct 2026A WSG Wattens2-1
20 Sep 2026H Wolfsberger AC4-1
11 Sep 2026H Red Bull Salzburg1-1
30 Aug 2026A TSV Hartberg2-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Ried Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Ried to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Sturm Graz Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Sturm Graz to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Recent form data shows Sturm Graz and Ried both maintain high corner averages, with Sturm Graz's 6.2 and Ried's 3.4 corners per game consistent over recent matches. Their offensive momentum and territorial control in recent fixtures support the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners in this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
80%Ried Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, indicating open and attacking encounters. This tempo often results in frequent set-piece situations, especially corners, as both teams push offensively. The trend over recent matches supports a high-tempo game with multiple corner chances.

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